FNUS71 KBUF 080247 FWSBUF SPOT FORECAST FOR SALAMANCA FIRE...NYS DEC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2226 EDT ON MAY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... .DISCUSSION... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHAUTAUQUA CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES UNTIL 300AM EDT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE SALAMANCA AREA BETWEEN 1100PM AND 1130PM. THESE STORMS WILL BRIEFLY PRODUCE A RAPID WIND SHIFT WITH WINDS GUSTING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST EXCEEDING 45 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITHIN ABOUT 15 MINUTES AFTER THEY BEGIN AND RETURN TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION. A SECOND WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR IN THE 800AM TO 900AM TIME FRAME AS A COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 4O MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50MP THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND BRING INCREASING SUNSHINE BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46. MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 16 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSION....MIN 8 (POOR). TIME (EDT) 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............87 96 94 91 89 88 86 85 WEATHER COV.........DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP................61 61 61 61 60 59 57 55 MIN HUMIDITY........52 53 55 57 62 67 72 77 20 FT WIND DIR......S N S S S SW SW W 20 FT WIND SPD......16 30 20 20 20 20 18 18 20 FT WIND GUST..... 45 25 25 25 20 20 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 SMK DISPERSION......21 18 14 12 11 8 8 13 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 29 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BECOMING WEST 29 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 6700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 TO 28 MPH...BECOMING WEST AND...INCREASING TO 47 TO 54 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSION....MAX 150 (VERY GOOD). TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............67 32 14 23 42 51 60 79 88 89 90 91 WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP................53 51 48 46 46 46 46 45 44 42 41 40 MIN HUMIDITY........80 82 81 79 72 66 65 65 66 68 69 71 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W SW SW SW SW SW W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD......20 21 23 25 29 30 30 30 29 29 30 30 20 FT WIND GUST..... 25 35 35 40 45 45 50 50 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX........2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 SMK DISPERSION......32 69 116 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 $$ FORECASTER...NIZIOL REQUESTED BY...RANGER ROGERS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100507.SALAM.02/BUF