FNUS73 KAPX 101021
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CURTIS PINE FUELS...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
621 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...GREAT DAY FOR BURNING WITH JUST A LIGHT WIND FROM
THE NORTH EARLY SHIFTING EAST BUT REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...HELPED ALONG AS THE LAKE BREEZE KICKS INLAND. AS
THIS BREEZE PASSES THROUGH...THE POSSIBILITY FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 15 MPH WILL EXIST FROM ABOUT IGNITION TIME ONWARD THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE DECENT BUT LACK
OF DEEP MIXING WILL PREVENT HUMIDITIES FROM DIPPING MUCH BELOW 30
PERCENT AT THEIR LOWEST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
                    TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 54.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH LATE MORNING
                    SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 5 BY IGNITION.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-7200 FT AGL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (500).

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
SKY (%).........36  36  36  46  46  46  61  61  61
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............53  54  54  54  53  51  50  47  44
RH..............33  32  32  32  32  33  34  38  45
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   7   6   6   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    TOWARD SUNRISE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37.
MAX HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (100 PERCENT). RAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH
                    THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.


$$
FORECASTER...DAVID LAWRENCE
REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100510.CURTI.01/APX