FNUS73 KAPX 101218
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEMORABLE NORTH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
818 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 EDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TODAY.  MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED BY
AN EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON.  MIXING EXPECTED
TO BE DEEP THIS AFTERNOON (IN EXCESS OF 7000 FEET).

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
                    TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 54.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    EAST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6800-7200 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (700).

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........36  36  46
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............54  54  54
RH..............31  30  32
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  E   SE
20 FT WIND SPD..9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......300 200 200

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........46  46  60  60  60  60  60  60  87  87  87  87
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............53  51  49  47  44  42  39  37  36  36  36  36
RH..............32  33  36  38  45  50  57  64  67  69  72  69
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   7
20 FT WIND GUST.15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15
SMOKE DISP......300 400 300 200 100 0   0   0   0   0   100 100

$$
FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS
REQUESTED BY...BSTEARNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100510.MEMOR.02/APX