FNUS75 KBOU 101504 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER NORTH FORK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 905 AM MDT MON MAY 10 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS US. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE AXIS AND CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOL THAN NORMALS TODAY...BUT WILL DROP ON TUESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAYS THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1500...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65. MIN HUMIDITY........25-25%. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 18-28 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL AFTER 0700 UNTIL 0900...THEN 4800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 8200 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 11400 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 13000-14000 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 10000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2100...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-38. MAX HUMIDITY........70-80%. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......6600-7600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 2000-3000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN RAIN LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-55. MIN HUMIDITY........50-60%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN EAST 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200. WARMER. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LOWER NORTH FORK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/10-08 59 9 46 40 W 15 1 3336 W 17 50917 F 05/10-09 61 9 50 32 W 16 25 3 1 SW30 4897 W 17 74938 G 05/10-10 61 9 54 26 W 17 1 8131 W 17 126175 V 05/10-11 61 9 58 21 W 20 1 11364 W 18 177413 E 05/10-12 61 17 60 18 W 21 33 3 3 NW14 14598 NW 18 228650 E 05/10-13 61 17 61 17 W 22 3 14501 NW 18 230375 E 05/10-14 61 17 62 16 W 22 3 14404 W 18 232100 E 05/10-15 58 8 62 16 W 23 37 3 1 W14 14306 W 18 233825 E 05/10-16 58 8 62 16 W 25 1 12136 W 22 221881 E 05/10-17 58 8 61 17 W 26 1 9965 W 25 209938 E 05/10-18 57 3 59 19 W 25 40 2 1 NW22 7794 W 29 197994 E 05/10-19 57 3 56 24 W 20 1 6363 W 26 154258 E 05/10-20 57 3 52 32 NW 12 1 4931 W 24 110521 V 05/10-21 57 3 48 41 NW 5 5 2 1 W32 3500 W 22 66784 G 05/10-22 65 8 45 48 N 2 1 3010 W 15 45607 F 05/10-23 65 8 43 53 NE 2 1 2520 NW 8 24429 P 05/11-00 65 8 41 57 E 3 3 2 1 W38 2031 NW 2 3251 P 05/11-01 65 8 40 61 E 3 1 2045 W 3 5768 P 05/11-02 65 8 39 63 SE 5 1 2059 SW 5 8284 P 05/11-03 65 8 39 65 SE 5 5 2 1 SW38 2073 S 6 10801 P 05/11-04 65 8 38 68 SE 5 1 2111 S 7 12492 P 05/11-05 65 8 38 70 SE 6 1 2150 S 8 14183 P 05/11-06 81 10 38 69 SE 6 6 2 1 SW46 2188 S 8 15874 P 05/11-07 81 10 40 64 SE 6 1 2616 S 9 22484 P 05/11-08 81 10 40 64 SE 6 1 3045 S 10 29094 P 05/11-09 81 10 43 59 E 6 6 2 1 SW48 3473 S 12 35704 P 05/11-10 81 10 45 55 E 8 1 3956 S 14 47018 F 05/11-11 81 10 46 52 E 10 1 4438 S 15 58331 F 05/11-12 86 60 48 51 E 12 17 2 1 SW45 4921 S 16 69645 G 05/11-13 86 60 48 51 E 10 1 4969 S 16 71432 G 05/11-14 86 60 49 51 E 9 1 5017 S 17 73219 G 05/11-15 94 60 49 52 E 8 8 2 1 S54 5065 S 17 75006 G 05/11-16 94 60 49 53 E 8 1 4931 S 17 75608 G 05/11-17 94 60 49 55 E 9 1 4797 SE 18 76211 G 05/11-18 100 70 48 59 E 10 16 2 1 S47 4663 SE 18 76814 G 05/11-19 100 70 45 64 E 10 1 3938 SE 15 56735 F 05/11-20 100 70 42 72 E 10 1 3214 E 12 36655 P 05/11-21 100 70 40 80 NE 9 14 2 1 S38 2489 E 8 16576 P 05/11-22 100 70 38 86 NE 8 1 2678 E 9 22725 P 05/11-23 100 70 36 90 N 8 1 2867 NE 12 28875 P 05/12-00 100 70 35 93 N 8 8 2 1 SE39 3055 N 13 35024 P 05/12-01 100 70 34 94 N 9 1 3212 N 14 39872 P 05/12-02 100 70 33 94 N 10 1 3368 N 15 44720 F 05/12-03 100 70 32 95 N 13 18 2 1 SE26 3525 N 16 49568 F 05/12-04 100 70 32 95 N 14 1 3733 N 18 58703 F 05/12-05 100 70 32 95 N 15 1 3941 N 20 67837 G 05/12-06 100 70 32 95 N 16 24 2 1 NW 5 4149 N 22 76972 G 05/12-07 100 70 33 92 N 16 1 4518 N 23 91492 G 05/12-08 100 70 34 95 N 16 1 4887 NE 24 106013 V 05/12-09 100 70 35 92 N 15 23 2 1 N14 5256 NE 26 120534 V 05/12-10 100 70 37 90 N 15 1 5711 N 24 118650 V 05/12-11 100 70 37 90 N 14 1 6166 N 22 116767 V 05/12-12 100 54 38 88 N 13 20 2 1 NW14 6621 N 20 114883 V 05/12-13 100 54 39 88 N 12 1 6534 N 20 112583 V 05/12-14 100 54 39 86 N 10 1 6447 N 20 110283 V 05/12-15 100 54 40 84 N 10 15 2 1 W31 6360 NW 20 107983 V 05/12-16 100 54 40 84 NE 9 1 6077 NW 20 101843 V 05/12-17 100 54 40 85 NE 8 1 5794 NW 18 95702 G 05/12-18 89 40 39 86 NE 7 7 2 1 NW32 5510 NW 18 89561 G 05/12-19 89 40 38 88 NE 6 1 5131 NW 17 79038 G 05/12-20 89 40 37 92 NE 5 1 4752 NW 16 68515 G 05/12-21 89 40 35 95 NE 5 5 2 1 NW23 4373 N 15 57992 F 05/12-22 89 40 34 97 NE 3 1 3621 NW 13 42843 F 05/12-23 89 40 33 97 NE 2 1 2869 NW 9 27695 P 05/13-00 89 40 32 97 NE 2 2 2 1 NW18 2116 NW 7 12546 P 05/13-01 89 40 32 97 N 2 1 1784 NW 6 9408 P 05/13-02 89 40 31 96 N 2 1 1451 NW 5 6270 P 05/13-03 65 40 31 96 NW 2 2 2 1 NW13 1118 NW 3 3132 P 05/13-04 65 40 30 94 NW 2 1 1123 NW 3 2924 P 05/13-05 65 40 30 93 W 2 1 1128 N 2 2716 P 05/13-06 65 10 30 92 W 2 2 2 1 W13 1133 N 2 2508 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...KIRK WILL REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100510.LOWER.01/BOU