FNUS73 KGRR 101244
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR BLAZING STAR...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
844 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY DAY TO THE AREA
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY...WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN
INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-96.

WINDS MAY BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC TODAY AS A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TRIES
TO PUSH IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THE EASTERLY GRADIENT
HOLDS...AN EAST WIND WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
-TIME THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE LAKE BREEZE MAY PUSH INTO THE BURN
AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO MAKE WINDS LIGHT SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 200 PM THROUGH 600 PM.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
                    TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6600-7100 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....100-500 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 600-700
                    (EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT) LATE IN THE DAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 18 TO 23 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 13 TO 21 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1800-2300 FT
                    AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....400-700 (GOOD TO EXCELLENT) DECREASING TO
                    100-200 (POOR TO FAIR) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. EAST WINDS 23 TO 28 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 24 TO 32 MPH INCREASING TO 37 TO 46
                    MPH...THEN DECREASING TO 30 TO 35 MPH LATE IN
                    THE DAY.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2100 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....200-400 (FAIR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 600-1000
                    (EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT)...THEN DECREASING TO
                    500 (GOOD) IN THE EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER...MJS
REQUESTED BY...BOB LITTLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100510.BLAZI.01/GRR