FNUS73 KGRR 101205
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR BUDWORM  40...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
805 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY DAY TO THE AREA
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY...WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN INDIANA
AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT
AND REMAIN THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A DRY DAY CAN
BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC TODAY AS A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TRIES
TO PUSH IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THE EASTERLY GRADIENT
HOLDS...AN EAST WIND WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
-TIME THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE LAKE BREEZE MAY PUSH INTO THE BURN
AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO MAKE WINDS LIGHT SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 200 PM THROUGH 600 PM.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
                    TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    BECOMING SOUTH AT 5 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6800-7300 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....100-500 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 600
                    (EXCELLENT) LATE IN THE DAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 16 TO 21 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 20
                    TO 26 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-6700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200-1700 FT
                    AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....300-700 (GOOD TO EXCELLENT) DECREASING TO
                    200-400 (FAIR TO GOOD) TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 30 TO 36 MPH INCREASING TO 37 TO 45 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-2400 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....600-1000 (EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT) INCREASING TO
                    700-1100 (EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT).

$$
FORECASTER...DUKE
REQUESTED BY...BOB LITTLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100510.BUDWO.01/GRR