FNUS75 KGJT 130452
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY PARK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 PM MDT WED MAY 12 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON MAY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...EVENING MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
FROM WHAT WE DISCUSSED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY HAVE FALLEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY TODAY. WITH SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WATCH FOR VIRGA INDUCED WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE WINDS AT THE BURN SITE LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN. FRIDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE BURN SITE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
SHOWERS. A DRY WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY
                    WITH AFTERNOON VIRGA.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-39%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 2-5 MPH.
                    LOCAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR AFTERNOON VIRGA.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING FAIR BY 1100 INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL AT 1100 INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 MPH INCREASING TO 12 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87%.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 5 MPH...TURNING TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (MAX OF 34000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-38%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE 2-5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH BY NOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. VERY GOOD AFTER NOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 13000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 MPH BY 1000. ERRATIC WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...TANNER HUTT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100513.DRYPA.01/GJT