FNUS75 KGJT 140203
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK RIDGE RX...SOUTHERN UTE BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
803 PM MDT THU MAY 13 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON MAY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OVER CENTRAL UTAH AND CAUSE A
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ALOFT OVER THE FIRE SITE EARLY FRIDAY
AND THEN START TO RELAX SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST INTO COLORADO. THIS LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE IN THE
EVENING.

THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER COLORADO AND SLOWLY EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRY WARMING TREND BEGINS
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-63 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
WIND (20 FT)........TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100 INCREASING TO VERY GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL THROUGH EARLY MORNING THEN INCREASING
                    TO 10900 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 MPH UNTIL 1100 BECOMING
                    SOUTH 13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO TERRAIN
                    DRIVEN 4 TO 6 MPH AFTER 2200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD IN THE EVENING BECOMING POOR AFTER 2100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-700 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21%.
WIND (20 FT)........TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS 4 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO
                    THE WEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO
                    VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 11 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...AS
REQUESTED BY...RICH GUSTAFSON  FMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100514.BLACK.01/GJT