FNUS73 KAPX 151354 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BERNATHY...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 954 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LEADING TO GENERAL LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS (10 MPH OR LESS) ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE BURN SITE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKE HURON THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE BURN SITE AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. SO...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS AT IGNITION AT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS VEER INTO THE EAST AROUND THE 3 PM HOUR. OTHERWISE...LINGERING COOL AIR ALOFT AND HEATING OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...THAT IS CONDITIONS RANGING FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES AT THE BURN SITE WILL TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S AND EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) WITH OCCASIONAL MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) PERIODS. TEMPERATURE.........55 AT IGNITION...MAX 61. MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...VEERING EAST AT 8 MPH AFTER 3 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4300-6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (800). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........47 59 71 62 44 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............55 57 59 60 61 60 RH..............57 51 47 42 39 39 20 FT WIND DIR..NW N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......600 800 800 800 700 600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........35 35 17 17 17 17 17 17 15 15 15 15 WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY PTY WEATHER TYPE.... FOG FOG FOG FOG TEMP............59 57 56 53 50 47 45 43 41 40 39 38 RH..............40 43 45 52 58 68 76 82 89 89 92 96 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NE NE NE N N N NW W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 5 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68. MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........15 7 7 7 9 9 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............38 41 53 65 67 67 RH..............96 85 54 34 30 29 20 FT WIND......NW 1 NW 1 NE 4 NE 6 E 7 E 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 15 20 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100515.BERNA.01/APX