FNUS74 KLIX 151128 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 628 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SE 25 KT ACROSS TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE OF TSTMS WAS MOVING E 15 KT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LA COAST JUST EAST OF GRAN CHENIER. A 10MB GRADIENT WAS ACROSS THE GLFMEX WITH 1021MB ALONG THE W FL COAST...1011MB AND FALLING PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. PRESSURE AT THE SPILL SITE IS 1019MB AND FALLING. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS... NO ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE AREA WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND MARINE WEATHER WARNINGS/STATEMENTS HIGHLY EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. .WIND PROFILE... 10Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... E 14KT 250FT...ESE 16KT 500FT...ESE 19KT 1KFT... SE 21KT 2KFT... SE 23KT 3KFT... SE 23KT 4KFT... SE 23KT 5KFT... SE 23KT MAX WIND...248/36KT 46.1KFT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 10500...DRY LAPSE RATE TO 22000 ...MOIST AGAIN THE REST OF THE WAY. FIRST 21K FT DRY THEN MOIST THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE COLUMN P.W. 0.98 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 151051Z AUTO 09003KT 6SM BR CLR 23/22 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP191 T02280217 TSNO METAR KGAO 151102Z AUTO 10011G16KT 10SM SCT001 BKN018 BKN041 25/23 A3007 RMK AO2 METAR KHSA NO OBSERVATION METAR KIPN 151115Z AUTO 12018KT 9SM 26/23 A3010 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 151115Z AUTO 13028KT 1 1/4SM BR 23/21 A3008 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 151120Z AUTO 13010KT 6SM BR 26/24 A3005 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 151115Z AUTO 13016KT 7SM FEW050 FEW070 25/24 A3009 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 151110Z AUTO 10011KT 25/24 A3007 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT 035-050 SCT/BKN 050/070 BKN/OVC250 ...VISBIES P6SM...ISLTD SHRA/TSRA NEAR HUM. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W... ...VFR FEW/SCT 030-040 BKN070-085 BKN/OVC 250 ...LCL VISBIES 2SM HZ...ISLTD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. KHSA 150538Z 1506/1606 12004KT P6SM FEW020 BKN250 FM151300 12008KT P6SM BKN030 FM151700 13009KT P6SM BKN040 PROB30 1522/1603 3SM -TSRA BKN030CB AMD NOT SKED TIL 151200= KHUM 150945Z 1510/1606 14005KT 6SM BR BKN025 BKN035CB BKN070 TEMPO 1511/1513 3SM TSRA BKN018CB FM151400 13010KT P6SM BKN035 FM152000 14010KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 1520/1524 3SM TSRA BKN025CB FM160000 12006KT P6SM BKN040= .RADAR... AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW MOVED NORTH OF TERREBONNE AND TIMBALIER BAY. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT 81 MILES TO THE SE OF PORT FOURCHON MOVING TO THE NW AT 20 MPH. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PRODUCING FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. IT IS ALSO LIKELY PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS ALONG WITH GENERATING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS. THE SQUALLINE OVER SWRN LA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE E AROUND 15 MPH. AT 5AM CDT THIS LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR LAKE SULPHUR SW TO NORTHEAST CAMERON LEASE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND DAY. THIS SQUALLINE IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. ON A POSITIVE NOTE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SQUALLINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IT MAY END UP BEING NORTH OF THE COAST BY THE TIME IT REACHES SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.94 FT (+0.59 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) WYCM6 1.91 FT (+0.74 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SAT MAY 15 2010 LO 1 36 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 3 17 PM STAGE 1.9 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SUN MAY 16 2010 LO 2 28 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 00 PM STAGE 2.0 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...MON MAY 17 2010 LO 3 23 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 46 PM STAGE 1.9 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 79F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........66 66 66 66 66 66 72 72 72 72 72 72 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............76 76 77 78 78 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 RH..............87 87 87 85 82 82 80 80 80 80 80 85 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 MIX HGT (KM)....0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.18 17 17 18 18 18 18 15 15 15 10 10 TRANS SPD (M/S).8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BUT ROUGH/VERY ROUGH NEAR TSM............ HRLY RAIN (IN). .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 0.12 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........72 79 79 79 75 75 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............78 77 77 76 76 76 RH..............85 87 88 87 87 88 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 8 SE 8 SE 10 SE 9 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1600 1900 1900 1600 1600 MIX HGT (M).....400 490 580 580 490 490 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10 SE 10 SE 12 SE 12 SE 13 SE 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 40 40 40 40 40 SEAS............5 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........75 79 79 79 88 88 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 76 78 79 80 80 RH..............90 87 80 78 76 78 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 10 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 1600 2200 2200 2500 2300 MIX HGT (M).....490 490 670 670 760 700 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 14 SE 13 SE 15 SE 15 S 17 S 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......40 50 50 50 50 50 HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100515.DEEPW.02/LIX