FNUS74 KLIX 151247 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 747 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT HAS STARTED TO REALLY SLOW DOWN ACROSS TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE OF TSTMS WAS MOVING NE 12 KT ACROSS CENTRAL LA. A 10MB GRADIENT WAS ACROSS THE GLFMEX WITH 1022MB ALONG THE W FL COAST...1012MB PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. PRESSURE OVER THE SPILL SITE IS 1021MB . .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS... SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR MAINLY FOR WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... (THIS INCLUDES THE WEST DELTA...SOUTH PASS...WEST DELTA SOUTH ADDITION...AND SOUTH PASS SOUTH ADDITION LEASE AREAS) .WIND PROFILE... 10Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... E 13KT 250FT...ESE 19KT 500FT...ESE 17KT 1KFT... SE 20KT 2KFT... SE 24KT 3KFT...SSE 26KT 4KFT...SSE 26KT 5KFT...SSE 26KT MAX WIND...278/38KT 45.6KFT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 10500...DRY LAPSE RATE TO 19000 ...MOIST AGAIN THE REST OF THE WAY. FIRST 19K FT DRY THEN MOIST THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE COLUMN P.W. 1.11 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 151151Z AUTO 11006KT 6SM BR CLR 24/22 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP195 T02390222 10239 20228 53001 TSNO METAR KGAO 151222Z AUTO 10011G17KT 10SM VCTS BKN001 BKN036 BKN047 26/23 A3011 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S THRU NW METAR KHSA 151155Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 21/21 A3010 METAR KIPN 151235Z AUTO 12016KT 10SM CLR 26/24 A3012 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 151235Z AUTO 15018G26KT 5SM HZ FEW110 25/21 A3006 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 151240Z AUTO 13009G16KT 090V160 5SM HZ 27/24 A3006 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 151235Z AUTO 16022G28KT 9SM BKN100 24/22 A3009 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 151230Z AUTO 13012KT 4SM HZ BKN050 OVC065 27/24 A3009 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT 035-050 SCT/BKN 050/070 BKN/OVC250 ...VISBIES P6SM...ISLTD SHRA/TSRA NEAR HUM. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W... ...VFR FEW/SCT 020-035 BKN 070-085 BKN/OVC 250 ...LCL VISBIES 3SM HZ...ISLTD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. KHSA 151140Z 1512/1612 VRB06KT P6SM FEW030 BKN250 FM151700 13009KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 1521/1601 3SM TSRA BKN030CB FM160100 12003KT P6SM SCT030 BKN040 PROB30 1601/1605 4SM -TSRA BKN030CB= KHUM 151140Z 1512/1612 14003KT 6SM BR VCSH SCT016 BKN040 FM151400 13010KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 1514/1517 4SM -TSRA BKN030CB FM152000 14010KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 1520/1524 3SM TSRA BKN025CB FM160000 12006KT P6SM BKN040= .RADAR... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS TERREBONNE AND TIMBALIER BAY. ANOTHER LARGER THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35KTS MOVING TO THE NNW AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM 36 MILES SE OF PORT FOURCHON. IT IS ALSO LIKELY PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS ALONG WITH GENERATING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS. THE SQUALLINE NOW OVER CENTRAL LA IS MOVING TO THE NE AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SQUALLINE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS SWRN LA HAS BEEN LIFTING MORE TO THE NE AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED. ALL THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PRODUCING FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND COULD BRING ABOUT WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KTS AND EVEN A FEW WATER SPOUTS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.13 FT (+0.56 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) WYCM6 2.13 FT (+0.68 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SUN MAY 16 2010 LO 2 28 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 00 PM STAGE 2.0 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...MON MAY 17 2010 LO 3 23 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 46 PM STAGE 1.9 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 18 2010 LO 4 17 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 5 33 PM STAGE 1.8 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 79F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........66 66 66 66 66 72 72 72 72 72 72 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............77 78 78 78 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 RH..............85 85 82 82 82 80 80 80 80 80 85 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.3 1.3 MIX HGT (KM)....0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.17 17 18 18 18 18 15 15 15 10 10 TRANS SPD (M/S).8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BUT ROUGH/VERY ROUGH NEAR TSM....... HRLY RAIN (IN). .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .12 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........72 79 79 79 75 75 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............78 77 77 76 76 76 RH..............85 87 88 87 87 88 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 8 SE 8 SE 10 SE 9 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2000 1900 1900 1600 1600 MIX HGT (M).....400 610 580 580 490 490 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10 SE 10 SE 12 SE 12 SE 13 SE 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 40 40 40 40 40 SEAS............5 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........75 79 79 79 88 88 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 76 78 79 80 80 RH..............90 87 80 78 76 78 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 10 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 1600 2200 2200 2500 2300 MIX HGT (M).....490 490 670 670 760 700 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 14 SE 13 SE 15 SE 15 S 17 S 16 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 14 SE 13 SE 15 SE 15 S 17 S 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100515.DEEPW.03/LIX