FNUS74 KLIX 151446 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 946 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND NE TOWARDS MEMPHIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WERE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LA. ALSO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ESE OFF THE CENTRAL TX COAST. A 8MB GRADIENT WAS ACROSS THE GLFMEX WITH 1022MB ALONG THE W FL COAST...1014MB PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. PRESSURE AT PORT FOURCHON IS 1019MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS... SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR MAINLY FOR WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... (THIS INCLUDES THE WEST DELTA...SOUTH PASS...WEST DELTA SOUTH ADDITION...AND SOUTH PASS SOUTH ADDITION LEASE AREAS) .WIND PROFILE... 14Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... E 12KT 250FT... E 15KT 500FT... E 17KT 1KFT... SE 20KT 2KFT... SE 23KT 3KFT... SE 24KT 4KFT... SE 24KT 5KFT...SSE 23KT MAX WIND...267/44KT 46.0KFT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE PRETTY MUCH ALL THE WAY UP. COLUMN IS DRY UP TO 19K FT...P.W. 1.35 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 151351Z AUTO 20011G18KT 6SM -RA BR FEW021 BKN048 OVC060 22/19 A3013 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1328 RAB09 SLP202 P0004 T02170194 TSNO METAR KGAO 151422Z AUTO 15011G20KT 10SM VCTS SCT001 SCT016 SCT023 25/22 A3010 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW THRU NE METAR KHSA 151355Z 14010KT 10SM SCT017 SCT024 26/22 A3012 METAR KIPN 151415Z AUTO 13025KT 10SM CLR 26/22 A3010 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 151415Z AUTO 14015KT 3SM BR CLR 26/24 A3008 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 151240Z AUTO 13009G16KT 090V160 5SM HZ 27/24 A3006 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 151240Z AUTO 15021G28KT 9SM BKN100 24/22 A3009 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 151410Z AUTO 15009G22KT 110V170 3SM HZ FEW045 FEW055 SCT080 25/21 A3010 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...FEW/SCT 015 SCT/BKN 030/050 SCT/BKN 070/090 BKN/OVC250...VISBIES P6SM... SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG LA COAST. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...FEW/SCT 020/040 SCT/BKN100 BKN/OVC250...LCL VISBIES 3SM HZ... ISLTD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. KHSA 151140Z 1512/1612 14010KT P6SM SCT017 SCT022 FM151700 13009KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 1521/1601 3SM TSRA BKN030CB FM160100 12003KT P6SM SCT030 BKN040 PROB30 1601/1605 4SM -TSRA BKN030CB= KHUM 151140Z 1512/1612 13004KT 6SM BR VCSH SCT016 BKN040 FM151400 13010KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 1514/1517 4SM -TSRA BKN030CB FM152000 14010KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 1520/1524 3SM TSRA BKN025CB FM160000 12006KT P6SM BKN040= .RADAR... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TERREBONNE AND TIMABLIER BAYS AND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. ALL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND COULD BRING ABOUT WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KTS ALONG WITH GENERATING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS AND EVEN A FEW WATER SPOUTS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.23 FT (+0.61 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; STEADY) WYCM6 2.38 FT (+0.62 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SUN MAY 16 2010 LO 2 28 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 00 PM STAGE 2.0 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...MON MAY 17 2010 LO 3 23 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 46 PM STAGE 1.9 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 18 2010 LO 4 17 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 5 33 PM STAGE 1.8 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 79F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........66 66 66 72 72 72 72 72 72 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............78 78 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 RH..............82 82 82 80 80 80 80 80 85 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.3 1.3 MIX HGT (KM)....0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 18 18 15 15 15 10 10 TRANS SPD (M/S).8 8 8 8 7 7 7 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BUT ROUGH/VERY ROUGH NEAR TSM HRLY RAIN (IN). .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .12 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........72 79 79 79 75 75 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............78 77 77 76 76 76 RH..............85 87 88 87 87 88 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 8 SE 8 SE 10 SE 9 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2000 1900 1900 1600 1600 MIX HGT (M).....400 610 580 580 490 490 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10 SE 10 SE 12 SE 12 SE 13 SE 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 40 40 40 40 40 SEAS............5 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........75 79 79 79 88 88 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 76 78 79 80 80 RH..............90 87 80 78 76 78 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 10 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 1600 2200 2200 2500 2300 MIX HGT (M).....490 490 670 670 760 700 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 14 SE 13 SE 15 SE 15 S 17 S 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY................................... HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100515.DEEPW.05/LIX