FNUS74 KLIX 151733 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND NE TOWARDS MEMPHIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WERE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. A 6MB GRADIENT WAS ACROSS THE GLFMEX WITH 1021MB ALONG THE W FL COAST...1015MB PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. PRESSURE AT PORT FOURCHON IS 1019MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED SUNDAY. ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS POSSIBLE... SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM. THIS IS MAINLY FOR CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS AND THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF MISSISSIPPI SOUND .WIND PROFILE... 13Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... E 13KT 250FT... E 16KT 500FT... E 18KT 1KFT... SE 21KT 2KFT...SSE 26KT 3KFT... S 26KT 4KFT... S 24KT 5KFT... S 23KT MAX WIND...266/41KT 46.2KFT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE PRETTY MUCH ALL THE WAY UP. COLUMN IS DRY UP TO 19K FT...P.W. 1.16 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W SPECI KBVE 151719Z AUTO 16009G18KT 1/4SM +RA FG BKN008 BKN013 OVC070 23/22 A3013 RMK AO2 P0043 TSNO $ METAR KGAO 151702Z AUTO 12011G15KT 10SM BKN017 BKN024 BKN031 27/23 A3009 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NW THRU E METAR KHSA 151655Z 14007KT 7SM SCT047 BKN060 OVC095 21/21 A3012 RMK TSVC METAR KIPN 151715Z AUTO 11020KT 10SM CLR 26/23 A3010 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 151715Z AUTO 16011KT 5SM HZ FEW022 27/24 A3008 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 151240Z AUTO 13009G16KT 090V160 5SM HZ 27/24 A3006 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 151710Z AUTO 15012G17KT 7SM BKN014 BKN021 BKN028 28/24 A3009 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...FEW/SCT 015 SCT 030/050 BKN/OVC 250 ...VISBIES P6SM...SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG LA COAST. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...FEW020/040 SCT/BKN100 BKN/OVC250 ...LCL VISBIES 5SM HZ...ISLTD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. KHSA 151140Z 1512/1612 13012KT P6SM SCT019 BKN026 BKN040 FM151700 13009KT P6SM SCT020 BKN035 TEMPO 1521/1601 3SM TSRA BKN030CB FM160100 12003KT P6SM SCT030 BKN040 PROB30 1601/1605 4SM -TSRA BKN030CB= KHUM 151140Z 1512/1612 13010KT P6SM BKN019 SCT025 BKN035 FM152000 14010KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 1520/1524 3SM TSRA BKN025CB FM160000 12006KT P6SM BKN040= .RADAR... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INLAND AND OUT OF TERREBONNE PARISH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE PORT FOURCHON AREA. CURRENTLY A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES AND EASTERN ST. BERNARD PARISHES AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ALL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS ALONG WITH GENERATING LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS AND EVEN A FEW WATER SPOUTS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.02 FT (+0.62 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; FALLING) WYCM6 3.06 FT (+0.73 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SUN MAY 16 2010 LO 2 28 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 00 PM STAGE 2.0 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...MON MAY 17 2010 LO 3 23 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 46 PM STAGE 1.9 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 18 2010 LO 4 17 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 5 33 PM STAGE 1.8 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 79F .REST OF TODAY... TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........72 72 72 72 72 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............79 79 79 79 79 RH..............80 80 80 80 85 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 2.2 2.2 1.3 1.3 MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 15 10 10 TRANS SPD (M/S).7 7 7 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............5 5 5 5 5 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BUT ROUGH/VERY ROUGH NEAR TSM HRLY RAIN (IN). .02 .02 .02 .02 .12 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........72 79 79 79 75 75 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............78 77 77 76 76 76 RH..............85 87 88 87 87 88 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 8 SE 8 SE 10 SE 9 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2000 1900 1900 1600 1600 MIX HGT (M).....400 610 580 580 490 490 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10 SE 10 SE 12 SE 12 SE 13 SE 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 40 40 40 40 40 SEAS............5 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY................................... HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........75 79 79 79 88 88 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 76 78 79 80 80 RH..............90 87 80 78 76 78 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 10 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 1600 2200 2200 2500 2300 MIX HGT (M).....490 490 670 670 760 700 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 14 SE 13 SE 15 SE 15 S 17 S 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY................................... HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100515.DEEPW.08/LIX