FNUS75 KRIW 151701
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBO EAST RX...NPS GTP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1101 AM MDT SAT MAY 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S THROUGH MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN TONIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN RELATIVELY HIGH BASED
                    CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM BY NOON (55-65 PERCENT CLOUD
                    COVERAGE). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
                    BY 1600 WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH
                    OF THE BURN SITE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS BACKING TO UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH FROM THE
                    SOUTHWEST BY 2100 WITH SOME GUSTS TO 10 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CWR.................3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7700-8200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 14
                    TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (52200-99600 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-33.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 4-7 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CWR.................LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300-7300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2400-3400 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO 14 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (5700-55300 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 4 MPH OR LESS. THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
                    FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH BY 1200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CWR.................LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000-9500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST 14 TO 16 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (15900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (82100
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...WAYNE PETSCH
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100515.ELBOE.01/RIW