FNUS74 KLIX 161022 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 522 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA COAST IS LIKELY TO BECOME ACTIVATED WITH TSTMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES E FROM SW LA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A 6MB GRADIENT WAS ACROSS THE GLFMEX WITH 1021MB ALONG THE W FL COAST...1015MB ON THE TX COAST. PRESSURE AT PORT FOURCHON IS 1017MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS AND STRONG THIS MORNING... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND ACTIVATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE COASTAL PARISHES. A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST NEAR CAMERON AND EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH VERMILION BAY. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT MARSHES. THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE UNSETTLED DESPITE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE BOUNDARY TO MAKE RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES. LIGHTNING MAY BECOME FREQUENT AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS DURING STRONGER STORMS. WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNDER RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORMS. MARINERS OPERATING IN THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF INCLEMENT WEATHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA TODAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE MARINE WEATHER WARNINGS TODAY. .WIND PROFILE... 13Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... E 17KT 250FT... E 20KT 500FT...ESE 22KT 1KFT... SE 25KT 2KFT...SSE 20KT 3KFT... S 12KT 4KFT... S 9KT 5KFT... S 8KT MAX WIND...257/34KT 54.2KFT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE PRETTY MUCH ALL THE WAY UP. ENTIRE COLUMN IS RATHER MOIST...P.W. 1.89 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 160951Z AUTO 12004KT 8SM BKN037 BKN049 BKN060 23/22 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP165 T02330222 TSNO $ METAR KGAO 160942Z AUTO 11005KT 7SM BKN001 OVC009 25/23 A3000 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W AND NW METAR KIPN 160955Z AUTO 13018KT 10SM 25/22 A3002 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 160955Z AUTO 15008KT 8SM FEW080 26/23 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 151240Z AUTO 13009G16KT 090V160 5SM HZ 27/24 A3006 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ MISG METAR KDLP 160950Z AUTO 12006KT 10SM BKN034 BKN042 BKN080 25/23 A3000 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...SCT/BKN 015 BKN/OVC 030/050 BKN/OVC 250 ...VISBIES P6SM...SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG LA COAST. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...SCT/BKN 030/050 SCT/BKN 080/100 BKN/OVC250... VISBIES P6SM...ISLTD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. KHSA 160540Z 1610/1706 11004KT P6SM BKN100 FM161400 15006KT P6SM VCSH BKN015 FM161900 17008KT P6SM VCTS BKN025CB TEMPO 1619/1623 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN012CB FM170200 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250 AMD NOT SKED= KHUM 160540Z 1610/1706 14008KT P6SM SCT015 BKN025 OVC200 FM161200 15008KT P6SM VCTS BKN025CB TEMPO 1614/1618 VRB15G25KT 1SM TSRA BKN012CB FM161800 21009KT P6SM VCTS BKN030CB TEMPO 1618/1622 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB FM170200 20005KT P6SM BKN250= .RADAR... BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE ONE STORM ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTH OF THE SPILL SITE. THIS LITTLE STORM HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND HAS FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH IT AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR MOBILE TO 120NM SOUTH OF MOBILE. OTHERWISE A BAND OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS EXTENDED FROM HOUMA TO 80NM SOUTH OF PORT FOURCHON...MOVING NNE 15 KT. MEANWHILE A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST 17 KT ALONG THE CENTRAL LA COAST JUST WEST OF BATON ROUGE AND NEW IBERIA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WAS NOTED WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED AND TRENDS...THESE STORMS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE MS RIVER DELTA AROUND 11AM. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.51 FT (+0.56 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) WYCM6 1.40 FT (+0.93 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SUN MAY 16 2010 LO 2 28 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 00 PM STAGE 2.0 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...MON MAY 17 2010 LO 3 23 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 46 PM STAGE 1.9 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 18 2010 LO 4 17 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 5 33 PM STAGE 1.8 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 79F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........77 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............75 75 76 77 78 78 79 79 79 80 80 80 79 RH..............90 90 90 87 85 79 79 78 77 77 76 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.12 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 13 13 18 18 18 TRANS SPD (M/S).5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 8 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 45 50 60 60 60 60 60 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BUT ROUGH NEAR TSM........................... HRLY RAIN (IN). .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........84 73 74 74 74 72 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 78 77 76 75 74 RH..............81 82 87 90 94 97 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 1200 1100 1100 1100 1200 MIX HGT (M).....760 370 340 340 340 370 TRANSPORT WIND..S 18 S 12 S 10 S 10 S 14 SW 16 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 18 S 12 S 10 S 10 S 14 SW 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 40 40 20 20 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......LT CHOPPY................................ HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........72 70 70 70 78 65 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............74 76 78 79 81 82 RH..............93 87 79 77 72 69 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 5 W 4 W 3 W 3 W 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1700 1300 1300 1100 800 MIX HGT (M).....370 520 400 400 340 240 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 16 SW 17 W 17 W 17 SW 17 W 17 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 16 SW 17 W 17 W 17 SW 17 W 17 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............3 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......LT CHOP................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100516.DEEPW.01/LIX