FNUS74 KLIX 161124 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 624 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA COAST IS LIKELY TO BECOME ACTIVATED WITH TSTMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES E FROM SW LA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A 6MB GRADIENT WAS ACROSS THE GLFMEX WITH 1019MB ALONG THE W FL COAST...1013MB ON THE TX COAST. PRESSURE OVER THE SPILL SITE IS 1016MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS AND STRONG THIS MORNING... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND ACTIVATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE COASTAL PARISHES. A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST NEAR CAMERON AND EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH VERMILION BAY. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT MARSHES. THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE UNSETTLED DESPITE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE BOUNDARY TO MAKE RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES. LIGHTNING MAY BECOME FREQUENT AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS DURING STRONGER STORMS. WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNDER RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORMS. MARINERS OPERATING IN THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF INCLEMENT WEATHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA TODAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE MARINE WEATHER WARNINGS TODAY. .WIND PROFILE... 11Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... E 15KT 250FT... E 18KT 500FT...ESE 21KT 1KFT... SE 24KT 2KFT... SE 21KT 3KFT...SSE 14KT 4KFT... S 10KT 5KFT... S 9KT MAX WIND...251/38KT 53.9KFT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALL THE WAY UP. ENTIRE COLUMN IS MOIST...P.W. 1.99 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 161051Z AUTO 15003KT 8SM CLR 23/22 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP162 T02330222 TSNO $ METAR KGAO 161102Z AUTO 13005KT 7SM OVC001 25/24 A2999 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E AND NW METAR KHSA NO OBSERVATION METAR KIPN 161055Z AUTO 14017KT 10SM 25/22 A3001 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 161055Z AUTO 15007KT 8SM SCT060 26/23 A3001 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 151240Z AUTO 13009G16KT 090V160 5SM HZ 27/24 A3006 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ MISG METAR KDLP 161050Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM BKN037 OVC047 26/23 A3000 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...SCT/BKN 015 BKN/OVC 030/050 BKN/OVC 250 ...VISBIES P6SM...SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG LA COAST. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...SCT/BKN 030/050 SCT/BKN 080/100 BKN/OVC250... VISBIES P6SM...ISLTD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. KHSA 160540Z 1610/1706 00000KT P6SM VCSH SC035 BKN100 FM161400 15006KT P6SM VCSH BKN015 FM161900 17008KT P6SM VCTS BKN025CB TEMPO 1619/1623 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN012CB FM170200 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250 AMD NOT SKED= KHUM 161048Z 1611/1706 12004KT P6SM VCTS SCT010 BKN022CB OVC050 TEMPO 1612/1616 VRB15G25KT 1SM TSRA BKN012CB FM161600 21009KT P6SM VCTS BKN030CB TEMPO 1616/1619 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB FM162100 19006KT P6SM SCT030 BKN250= .RADAR... A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 16 KT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN LA. AT 6AM CDT THIS WAS JUST OVER BATON ROUGE AND STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER MORGAN CITY AND INTO THE GULF. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED AND TRENDS...THIS MAIN BAND OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE MS RIVER DELTA AREA AROUND 11AM ALTHOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LINE. MEANWHILE LIGHT RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.78 FT (+0.57 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) WYCM6 1.66 FT (+0.76 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SUN MAY 16 2010 LO 2 28 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 00 PM STAGE 2.0 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...MON MAY 17 2010 LO 3 23 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 46 PM STAGE 1.9 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 18 2010 LO 4 17 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 5 33 PM STAGE 1.8 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 79F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............75 76 77 78 78 79 79 79 80 80 80 79 RH..............90 90 87 85 79 79 78 77 77 76 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.21 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.12 8 8 10 10 10 13 13 13 13 12 12 TRANS SPD (M/S).5 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 5 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 50 50 60 60 60 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BUT ROUGH NEAR TSM....................... HRLY RAIN (IN). .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........84 73 74 74 74 72 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 78 77 76 75 74 RH..............81 82 87 90 94 97 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3200 3000 2400 2400 2100 2200 MIX HGT (M).....980 910 730 730 640 670 TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SW 10 S 10 S 10 S 9 SW 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 40 40 20 20 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......LT CHOP.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........72 70 70 70 78 65 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............74 76 78 79 81 82 RH..............93 87 79 77 72 69 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 5 W 4 W 3 W 3 W 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2200 2300 2800 2800 3300 3300 MIX HGT (M).....670 700 850 850 1010 1010 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 NW 3 NW 5 NW 5 N 7 N 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............3 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......LT CHOP.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100516.DEEPW.02/LIX