FNUS74 KLIX 161227 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 727 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA COAST IS LIKELY TO BECOME ACTIVATED WITH TSTMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES E FROM SW LA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A 6MB GRADIENT WAS ACROSS THE GLFMEX WITH 1019MB ALONG THE W FL COAST...1013MB ON THE TX COAST. PRESSURE OVER THE SPILL SITE IS 1016MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS AND STRONG THIS MORNING... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS DURING STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN A FEW WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY UNDER RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORMS. MARINERS OPERATING IN THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF INCLEMENT WEATHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA TODAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE MARINE WEATHER WARNINGS TODAY. .WIND PROFILE... 13Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... E 14KT 250FT... E 17KT 500FT...ESE 21KT 1KFT... SE 23KT 2KFT... SE 21KT 3KFT...SSE 13KT 4KFT... S 10KT 5KFT... S 9KT MAX WIND...250/38KT 53.9KFT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALL THE WAY UP. ENTIRE COLUMN IS MOIST...P.W. 1.92 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 161151Z AUTO 14005KT 7SM SCT036 24/23 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP162 70227 T02390228 10239 20222 58001 TSNO $ METAR KGAO 161142Z AUTO 14005KT 7SM OVC001 25/24 A2999 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NW METAR KIPN 161155Z AUTO 16014KT 10SM CLR 26/22 A3003 RMK A01 SAUS80 KMYT 161200 METAR KMYT 161155Z AUTO 13007KT 5SM BR CLR 26/24 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KSPR MISG METAR KMDJ MISG METAR KDLP 161150Z AUTO VRB04KT 7SM CLR 26/24 A3000 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...SCT/BKN 015 BKN/OVC 030/050 BKN/OVC 250 ...VISBIES P6SM...SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG LA COAST. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...SCT/BKN 030/050 SCT/BKN 080/100 BKN/OVC250... VISBIES P6SM...ISLTD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. KHSA 161140Z 1612/1712 11004KT P6SM VCSH SCT019 BKN035 FM161400 14004KT P6SM VCSH BKN015 FM161800 17008KT P6SM VCTS BKN025CB TEMPO 1618/1622 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN012CB FM170200 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250= KHUM 161140Z 1612/1712 17008KT 5SM BR VCTS SCT011 BKN027CB OVC090 TEMPO 1612/1616 3SM TSRA BKN012CB FM161600 21009KT P6SM VCTS BKN030CB TEMPO 1616/1619 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB FM162100 19006KT P6SM SCT030 BKN250= .RADAR... A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 16 KT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA. AT 7AM CDT THIS LINE WAS APPROACHING THE I55 CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM NEAR CENTREVILLE...MS AND DOWN TO THE COAST NEAR HOUMA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED AND TRENDS...THIS MAIN BAND OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE MS RIVER DELTA AREA AROUND 11AM ALTHOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LINE. MEANWHILE SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS RIGHT OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AND THIS IS MOVIGN TO THE NNE/NE AROUND 15 KTS ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE BACKBUILDING. FREQUENT TO CONSTATNT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30KTS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATERSPOUT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PLEASE BE AWARE FOR STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS TO POSSIBLY COME OUT QUICKLY WITH THESE STORMS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.96 FT (+0.57 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) WYCM6 1.87 FT (+0.70 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...MON MAY 17 2010 LO 3 23 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 46 PM STAGE 1.9 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 18 2010 LO 4 17 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 5 33 PM STAGE 1.8 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...WED MAY 19 2010 LO 5 07 AM STAGE -0.2 HI 6 18 PM STAGE 1.6 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 79F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............76 77 78 78 79 79 79 80 80 80 79 RH..............90 87 85 79 79 78 77 77 76 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.21 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 10 10 10 13 13 13 13 12 12 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 5 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 60 60 60 60 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BUT ROUGH NEAR TSM................... HRLY RAIN (IN). .20 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........84 73 74 74 74 72 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 78 77 76 75 74 RH..............81 82 87 90 94 97 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3200 3000 2400 2400 2100 2200 MIX HGT (M).....980 910 730 730 640 670 TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SW 10 S 10 S 10 S 9 SW 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 40 40 20 20 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......LT CHOP.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........72 70 70 70 78 65 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............74 76 78 79 81 82 RH..............93 87 79 77 72 69 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 5 W 4 W 3 W 3 W 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2200 2300 2800 2800 3300 3300 MIX HGT (M).....670 700 850 850 1010 1010 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 NW 3 NW 5 NW 5 N 7 N 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............3 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......LT CHOP.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100516.DEEPW.03/LIX