FNUS74 KLIX 161511 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA COAST IS LIKELY TO BECOME ACTIVATED WITH TSTMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES E FROM SW LA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A 5MB GRADIENT WAS ACROSS THE GLFMEX WITH 1018MB ALONG THE W FL COAST...1013MB ON THE TX COAST. PRESSURE OVER THE SPILL SITE IS 1017MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS AND STRONG THIS MORNING... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS DURING STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN A FEW WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY UNDER RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORMS. MARINERS OPERATING IN THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF INCLEMENT WEATHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA TODAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE MARINE WEATHER WARNINGS TODAY. .WIND PROFILE... 15Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... SE 15KT 250FT... SE 19KT 500FT... SE 21KT 1KFT...SSE 21KT 2KFT... S 19KT 3KFT... S 16KT 4KFT...SSW 16KT 5KFT...SSW 18KT MAX WIND...256/44KT 54.1KFT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALL THE WAY UP. ENTIRE COLUMN IS MOIST...P.W. 1.74 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 161251Z AUTO 12009KT 10SM FEW018 24/21 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP160 T02390211 TSNO $ METAR KGAO 161302Z AUTO 13013G17KT 7SM TS BKN001 BKN010 BKN016 27/25 A2997 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS METAR KHSA 161255Z 00000KT 7SM SCT022 BKN043 23/21 A3000 METAR KIPN 161255Z AUTO 17016G27KT 10SM FEW017 SCT023 SCT028 23/20 A3002 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 161255Z AUTO 15010KT 1 1/2SM BR SCT004 BKN016 BKN055 26/24 A3000 RMK A0 METAR KSPR MISG METAR KMDJ MISG METAR KDLP 161250Z AUTO VRB05G10KT 8SM CLR 26/23 A2998 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...SCT/BKN 012 BKN 020/040 BKN/OVC 250 ...VISBIES 2SM-P6SM...SCT SHRA/TSRA. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...SCT/BKN 010/020 BKN 040/060 BKN/OVC250...VISBIES P6SM... SCT SHRA/TSRA. KHSA 161140Z 1612/1712 30007KT 2SM TSRA BKN012CB BKN018 OVC030 FM161800 17008KT P6SM VCTS BKN025CB TEMPO 1618/1622 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN012CB FM170200 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250= KHUM 161140Z 1612/1712 21009KT P6SM -RA VCTS BKN011 BKN030CB TEMPO 1616/1619 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB FM162100 19006KT P6SM SCT030 BKN250= .RADAR... A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 16 KT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA. AT 9AM CDT THIS LINE HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE I55 CORRIDOR AND THE ACTIVITY NOW STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF MCCOMB DOWN TO THE COAST NEAR GALLIANO. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED AND TRENDS...THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY IS ACTUALLY BEGINNING TO HANG BACK FURTHER IN PLAQIMINES...LAFOURCHE..AND TERREBONNE PARISHES. THAT SAID A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE MS RIVER DELTA TO DAULHPIN ISLAND CONTINUES. FREQUENT TO CONSTANT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE BE AWARE FOR STATEMENTS AND/OR WARNINGS TO TO COME OUT QUICKLY WITH THESE STORMS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.38 FT (+0.64 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) WYCM6 2.32 FT (+0.58 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SUN MAY 16 2010 LO 2 28 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 00 PM STAGE 2.0 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...MON MAY 17 2010 LO 3 23 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 46 PM STAGE 1.9 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 18 2010 LO 4 17 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 5 33 PM STAGE 1.8 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 79F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............78 79 79 79 80 80 80 79 RH..............79 79 78 77 77 76 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.21 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 13 13 13 13 12 12 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 6 6 6 6 5 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BUT ROUGH NEAR TSM........ HRLY RAIN (IN). .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........84 73 74 74 74 72 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 78 77 76 75 74 RH..............81 82 87 90 94 97 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3200 3000 2400 2400 2100 2200 MIX HGT (M).....980 910 730 730 640 670 TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SW 10 S 10 S 10 S 9 SW 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 40 40 20 20 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......LT CHOP.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.02 0.02 0.029 0.02 0.02 0.02 .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........72 70 70 70 78 65 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............74 76 78 79 81 82 RH..............93 87 79 77 72 69 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 5 W 4 W 3 W 3 W 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2200 2300 2800 2800 3300 3300 MIX HGT (M).....670 700 850 850 1010 1010 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 NW 3 NW 5 NW 5 N 7 N 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............3 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......LT CHOP.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100516.DEEPW.05/LIX