FNUS74 KLIX 161644 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1144 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS.... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA COAST IS LIKELY TO BECOME ACTIVATED WITH TSTMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES E FROM SW LA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A 5MB GRADIENT WAS ACROSS THE GLFMEX WITH 1019MB ALONG THE W FL COAST...1014MB ON THE TX COAST. PRESSURE OVER THE OIL SPILL SITE IS 1017MB .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS EXPECTED MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS AND STRONG THIS MORNING... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS DURING STRONGER STORMS AND EVEN A FEW WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY UNDER RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORMS. MARINERS OPERATING IN THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF INCLEMENT WEATHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA TODAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE MARINE WEATHER WARNINGS TODAY. .WIND PROFILE... 16Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... SE 14KT 250FT... SE 17KT 500FT... SE 18KT 1KFT...SSE 17KT 2KFT...SSE 16KT 3KFT... S 13KT 4KFT...SSW 13KT 5KFT... SW 15KT MAX WIND...241/38KT 46.0KFT. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALL THE WAY UP. ENTIRE COLUMN IS MOIST...P.W. 1.71 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 161551Z AUTO 12010KT 10SM SCT038 26/21 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP165 T02610206 TSNO METAR KGAO 161622Z AUTO 34007KT 7SM -TSRA CLR 22/21 A3003 RMK AO2 P0006 LTG DSNT ALQS METAR KHSA 161551Z 36005KT 5SM -TSRA SCT012 BKN029 OVC085 19/19 A3005 METAR KIPN 161615Z AUTO 15009KT 10SM SCT039 26/21 A3003 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 161615Z AUTO 17015KT 7SM FEW019 27/23 A3001 RMK A01 METAR KSPR MISG METAR KMDJ MISG METAR KDLP 161615Z AUTO 21013KT 1/2SM FG BKN004 OVC010 24/22 A3000 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...SCT/BKN 012 BKN 020/040 BKN/OVC 250 ...VISBIES 2SM-P6SM...SCT SHRA/TSRA. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...SCT/BKN 010/020 BKN 040/060 BKN/OVC250...VISBIES P6SM... SCT SHRA/TSRA. KHSA 161140Z 1612/1712 30007KT 5SM -TSRA SCT012CB BKN030 OVC080 FM161800 17008KT P6SM VCTS BKN025CB TEMPO 1618/1622 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN012CB FM170200 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250= KHUM 161140Z 1612/1712 11007KT 4SM -RA VCTS BKN015 BKN030CB TEMPO 1616/1619 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB FM162100 19006KT P6SM SCT030 BKN250= .RADAR... A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 16 KT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA AND HAS NOW PUSHED INTO THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS AND COASTAL MS. THE LINE NOW STRETCHES FROM PASCAGOULA DOWN TO THE LA COAST NEAR GALLIANO AND HOUMA. FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 KTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE. IN ADDITION THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING QUICK WEAK TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS TO SPIN UP ALONG THIS LINE. OTHER ACTIVITY WAS BUILDING SOUTH AND EAST OF TIMBALIER AND TERREBONNE BAY AND THESE ARE CAPABLE OF MODERATE RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE AND EVEN A FEW WATERSPOUTS. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER VERMILLION BAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL TODAY. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.33 FT (+0.57 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; FALLING) WYCM6 2.66 FT (+0.52 FT OFF ASTRONOMICAL TRACE; RISING) RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SUN MAY 16 2010 LO 2 28 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 00 PM STAGE 2.0 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...MON MAY 17 2010 LO 3 23 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 4 46 PM STAGE 1.9 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 18 2010 LO 4 17 AM STAGE -0.3 HI 5 33 PM STAGE 1.8 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 79F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........84 84 84 84 84 84 84 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............79 79 79 80 80 80 79 RH..............79 78 77 77 76 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 10 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.10 13 13 13 13 12 12 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 6 6 6 6 5 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 60 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......CHOPPY BUT ROUGH NEAR TSM... HRLY RAIN (IN). .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .19 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........84 73 74 74 74 72 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 78 77 76 75 74 RH..............81 82 87 90 94 97 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3200 3000 2400 2400 2100 2200 MIX HGT (M).....980 910 730 730 640 670 TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SW 10 S 10 S 10 S 9 SW 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 40 40 20 20 SEAS............4 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......LT CHOP.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........72 70 70 70 78 65 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............74 76 78 79 81 82 RH..............93 87 79 77 72 69 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 5 W 4 W 3 W 3 W 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2200 2300 2800 2800 3300 3300 MIX HGT (M).....670 700 850 850 1010 1010 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 NW 3 NW 5 NW 5 N 7 N 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............3 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......LT CHOP.................................. HRLY RAIN (IN)..0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100516.DEEPW.06/LIX