FNUS76 KMFR 161232
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOG CREEK 14-1...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
532 AM PDT SUN MAY 16 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 PDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE COAST MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT LEADING TO A PERIOD OF COOL
AND WET WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
ANOTHER FEW MORE WEAK FRONTS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT 1000 PDT INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-52.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WIND 2 TO 5 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE
                    0 TO 2 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH DECREASING TO SOUTH
                    4 TO 7 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WIND 1 TO 4 MPH INCREASING TO 3 TO 7
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. LOWS 48 TO 53.
HIGHS 62 TO 67. SOUTHWEST EYE LEVEL WIND 2-5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS 42 TO 47. HIGHS 56 TO
61. SOUTHWEST EYE LEVEL WIND 5-10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS 40 TO 45. HIGHS 55 TO
60. SOUTHWEST EYE LEVEL WIND 5-10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...WEYGAND
REQUESTED BY...ALLLEN MITCHELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100516.HOGCR.01/MFR