FNUS75 KGJT 171358
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TAYLOR CANYON...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
758 AM MDT MON MAY 17 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0750 MDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS IN WINDS. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BURN SITE TODAY. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. GRADIENT WINDS MAY PERSIST
OVER RIDGETOPS TONIGHT AS WELL.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) UNTIL 1300...THEN BECOMING
                    CLOUDY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-6 MPH. AFTER 1300...
                    SOUTHWEST 5-8 MPH OVER RIDGETOPS WITH GUSTS TO
                    TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR INCREASING TO
                    VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL BY 1100...INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL
                    BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE 3-5 MPH. AFTER 1200...SOUTHWEST
                    10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39 F.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH. ABOVE RIDGETOPS...
                    SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    8-12 MPH AFTER 1200 WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL BY 1200 INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 MPH AFTER 1200.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...J  CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100517.TAYLO.01/GJT