FNUS74 KLIX 171112 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 612 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... 1012MB LOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN KY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT EXTNDG INTO NORTHERN LA AND CENTRAL TX. RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 1017MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A 1014MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PRESSURE AT SPOT LOCATION...1016MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...NO TSTMS FORECAST. .WIND PROFILE... 08Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...SE 8KT 250FT... W 6KT 500FT... W 8KT 1KFT... W 8KT 2KFT...NW 7KT 3KFT...NW 8KT 4KFT...NW 5KT 5KFT...NW 8KT MAX WIND...253/42KT 48.2KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 1800FT...WARM LAPSE TO 5000FT...DRY LAPSE ABV 5000FT. MOIST TO 950MB/1900FT...DRY ABV. P.W. 1.18 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W METAR KBVE 171051Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM BR BKN005 21/21 A3000 METAR KGAO 171042Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM BR VV007 18/18 A2999 METAR KHSA 170156Z 00000KT 5SM BR CLR BLO 120 16/16 A2998 METAR KIPN 171055Z AUTO 24009KT 10SM CLR 25/23 A2998 METAR KMYT 171055Z AUTO 22005KT 8SM CLR 26/23 A2999 METAR KSPR MISG METAR KMDJ MISG .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT035-040. SCT TSTMS MID TO LATE MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER INVOF CONVECTION. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...VFR SCT028-032...LCL CIGS BKN030. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER INVOF CONVECTION. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 170827Z 1708/1806 00000KT 2SM BR SCT005 TEMPO 1709/1712 3/4SM BR VV005 FM171300 VRB03KT 4SM BR SCT015 FM171400 24005KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM171800 23005KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 1719/1722 4SM -TSRA BKN025CB FM180100 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250= KHSA 170540Z 1706/1806 00000KT 1SM BR SCT014 TEMPO 1706/1710 1/4SM FG SCT001 BKN014 FM171400 27006KT P6SM SCT020 SCT250 FM171800 19006KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB FM180100 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250 AMD NOT SKED= NOTE: KBVE TAF HAS BEEN TERMINATED. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT100. LGT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR SCT200. LGT-MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. .RADAR... NO ECHOES WERE DETECTED NEAR THE SPOT LOCATION. COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST CENTRAL LA WAS MOVING SE AROUND 25KT TOWARDS THE COAST. A PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX HAS BOWED OUT WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH. IF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HOLDS TOGETHER...IT SHOULD REACH THE COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING. ON ITS CURRENT PATH THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PASS NORTHEAST OF THE SPILL AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT THE SPOT LOCATION. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 MISG. FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 2.30 FT AT 11 AM CDT. LAST OBSERVATION WAS AT 0200 CDT AND WATER LEVEL WAS .66 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVEL. WYCM6 MISG FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 2.91 FT AT 2 PM CDT. LAST OBSERVATION WAS AT 0200 CDT AND WATER LEVEL WAS .75 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVEL. RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 11TH HI 1 06 PM STAGE 1.5 LO 11 23 PM STAGE 0.1 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...WED MAY 12TH HI 1 29 PM STAGE 1.6 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...THU MAY 13TH LO 12 03 AM STAGE -0.1 HI 2 00 PM STAGE 1.8 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 78.4F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........54 49 49 49 38 38 38 36 36 36 35 35 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............73 73 74 76 77 78 78 79 79 79 79 79 RH..............97 97 95 89 86 81 76 72 72 72 72 69 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 MIX HGT (KM)....0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 CIGS (FT AGL)...S20 S20 S25 S25 S25 B25 B25 B25 S25 S25 S30 S30 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.7 8 8 8 13 13 13 10 10 10 8 8 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 4 4 4 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH TO LIGHT CHOP......................... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........35 34 30 30 26 30 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP............78 76 75 74 73 72 RH..............67 69 74 82 87 90 20 FT WIND......SW 3 S 3 S 2 SW 4 SW 5 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 800 600 600 700 700 MIX HGT (M).....300 240 180 180 210 210 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 10 10 SEAS............3 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH TO LIGHT CHOP......................... .TUESDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........30 35 30 30 26 22 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 73 75 76 77 77 RH..............91 87 82 82 79 76 20 FT WIND......W 6 NW 5 NW 4 NW 3 NW 3 NW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....700 700 800 800 700 700 MIX HGT (M).....210 210 240 240 210 210 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 20 20 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH TO LIGHT CHOP....................... $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100517.DEEPW.02/LIX