FNUS74 KLIX 171208 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 708 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... 1012MB LOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN KY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT EXTNDG INTO NORTHERN LA AND CENTRAL TX. RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORHTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 1017MB HIGH CENTERED OVER FL PENINSULA. 1013MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GULF AND INTO SOUTH TX. SECOND 1017MB HIGH CENTRED OVER SW LA. PRESSURE AT SPOT LOCATION...1016MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE TODAY. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...NO TSTMS FORECAST. .WIND PROFILE... 11Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... W 6KT 250FT... W 6KT 500FT... W 8KT 1KFT...NW 14KT 2KFT...NW 12KT 3KFT...NW 9KT 4KFT...NW 7KT 5KFT...NW 7KT MAX WIND...262/38KT 46.4KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 2100FT...WARM LAPSE TO 5000FT...DRY LAPSE ABV 5000FT. MOIST TO 925MB/2400FT...DRY ABV. P.W. 1.20 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W SPECI KBVE 171158Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM BR SCT005 22/21 A3002 METAR KGAO 171142Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM FG OVC001 18/18 A3001 METAR KHSA 171155Z 00000KT 1SM BR BKN007 17/17 A3000 METAR KIPN 171155Z AUTO 27008KT 10SM CLR 26/23 A3000 METAR KMYT 171155Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM HZ FEW016 27/23 A3001 METAR KSPR MISG METAR KMDJ MISG .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT035-040. SCT TSTMS MID TO LATE MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER INVOF CONVECTION. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...VFR SCT028-032...LCL CIGS BKN030. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER INVOF CONVECTION. SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY KHUM 171140Z 1712/1812 00000KT 3SM BR SCT006 FM171300 VRB03KT 5SM BR SCT010 BKN200 FM171400 24005KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM171800 23005KT P6SM BKN035 TEMPO 1719/1722 4SM -TSRA BKN025CB FM180100 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250 FM180800 00000KT 4SM BR BKN250= KHSA 171140Z 1712/1812 00000KT 5SM BR SCT014 FM171400 27006KT P6SM SCT020 SCT250 FM171800 19006KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB FM172100 25006KT P6SM SCT050 BKN250 FM180100 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250= NOTE: KBVE TAF HAS BEEN TERMINATED. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT100. LGT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR SCT200. LGT-MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. .RADAR... NO ECHOES WERE DETECTED NEAR THE SPOT LOCATION. COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST LA AND IS NEARING THE BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN AREA. A PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX HAS ALREADY PRODUCED STRONG WINDS THAT DOWNED TREES IN WEST FELICIANA PARISH... BUT THAT STORM HAS WEAKENED SINCE THEN. IF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HOLDS TOGETHER...IT SHOULD REACH THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. ON ITS CURRENT PATH THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD PASS NORTHEAST OF THE SPILL AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT THE SPOT LOCATION. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 MISG. FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 2.30 FT AT 11 AM CDT. LAST OBSERVATION WAS AT 0230 CDT AND WATER LEVEL WAS .76 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVEL. WYCM6 1.31 FT AT 0630 CDT (.55 HIGHER THAN PREDICTED LEVEL). FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 2.91 FT AT 2 PM CDT. RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 11TH HI 1 06 PM STAGE 1.5 LO 11 23 PM STAGE 0.1 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...WED MAY 12TH HI 1 29 PM STAGE 1.6 RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...THU MAY 13TH LO 12 03 AM STAGE -0.1 HI 2 00 PM STAGE 1.8 BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 77.5F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........49 49 49 38 38 38 36 36 36 35 35 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............73 74 76 77 78 78 79 79 79 79 79 RH..............97 95 89 86 81 76 72 72 72 72 69 20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 13 13 13 10 10 10 8 8 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 CEILINGS........F20 S20 S25 S25 S25 S25 S25 S25 S25 S30 S30 SEAS............3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH TO LIGHT CHOP......................... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........35 34 30 30 26 30 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP............78 76 75 74 73 72 RH..............67 69 74 82 87 90 20 FT WIND......SW 3 S 3 S 2 SW 4 SW 5 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 2600 600 600 700 700 MIX HGT (M).....820 790 180 180 210 210 TRANSPORT WIND..W 8 W 10 W 10 W 10 W 10 W 10 TRAN WIND (M/S).W 8 W 10 W 10 W 10 W 10 W 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 10 10 SEAS............3 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH TO LIGHT CHOP......................... .TUESDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........30 35 30 30 26 22 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 73 75 76 77 77 RH..............91 87 82 82 79 76 20 FT WIND......W 6 NW 5 NW 4 NW 3 NW 3 NW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....700 700 1600 1600 2600 2800 MIX HGT (M).....210 210 490 490 790 850 TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 W 10 W 9 W 9 W 7 SW 9 TRAN WIND (M/S).W 10 W 10 W 9 W 9 W 7 SW 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 20 20 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH TO LIGHT CHOP......................... $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100517.DEEPW.03/LIX