FNUS74 KLIX 171611
FWSLIX

SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1111 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.SYNOPSIS...
1012MB LOW LOCATED OVER EXTREME EASTERN KY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTNDG INTO NORTHERN LA AND CENTRAL TX. RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 1017MB SFC HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH
STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE SFC LOW IN KY THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. SFC PRESSURE AT SPOT LOCATION...1017MB.


.WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY...
...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE TODAY.
...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...NO TSTMS FORECAST.


.WIND PROFILE...
17Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION
  SFC...VRB  2KT
250FT...VRB  1KT
500FT...  W  3KT
 1KFT...  W  4KT
 2KFT...WSW  5KT
 3KFT...  W  9KT
 4KFT...  W 11KT
 5KFT...  W 10KT
MAX WIND...258/39KT 45.3KFT.
DRY LAPSE TO 3100FT...WARM LAPSE TO 5500FT...DRY LAPSE ABV 5500FT.
MOIST TO 900MB/2400FT...DRY COLUMN AFTER THAT...P.W. 1.39 IN.


.NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...
...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS
...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS
...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS
...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W
...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W
...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W
...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W
...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W

METAR KBVE 171551Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM CLR 27/22 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP170
     T02670222 TSNO
METAR KGAO 171542Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT018 SCT036 28/22 A3003 RMK
     AO2
METAR KHSA 171555Z 36003KT 10SM SCT025 27/19 A3000
METAR KIPN 171555Z AUTO 31005G10KT 10SM CLR 29/22 A3004 RMK A01
METAR KMYT 171555Z AUTO 33008KT 7SM CLR 26/22 A3004 RMK A01
METAR KSPR MISG
METAR KMDJ MISG
METAR KDLP 171535Z AUTO 31007KT 9SM CLR 26/23 A3003 RMK A01


.AREAL AVIATION...
COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR FEW/SCT 025-040.
MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...VFR FEW015-030...
     ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS EARLY AFTERNOON.
     CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER INVOF CONVECTION.

KHUM 171140Z 1712/1812 34007KT P6SM FEW100
     FM171800 23005KT P6SM BKN035
      TEMPO 1719/1722 4SM -TSRA BKN025CB
     FM180100 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250
     FM180800 00000KT 4SM BR BKN250=

KHSA 171140Z 1712/1812 28006KT P6SM SCT025 SCT250
     FM171800 19006KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB
     FM172100 25006KT P6SM SCT050 BKN250
     FM180100 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250=

AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT100. LGT SE WND.
AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR SCT200. LGT-MDT SE WND.
AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND.


.RADAR...
NO ECHOES WERE DETECTED NEAR THE SPOT LOCATION RO WITHIM 200 MILES
OF THE SOPT LOCATION. THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THAT
MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NEAR THE LA/MS BORDER AS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALONG THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND COULD AFFECT THE SPOT LOCATION.


.TIDAL INFORMATION...
PSTL1 2.31 FT AT 1039 CDT (.61 HIGHER THAN PREDICTED LEVEL).
    HIGH TIDE OCCURING NOW.

WYCM6 2.11 FT AT 1037 CDT (.32 HIGHER THAN PREDICTED LEVEL).
    FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 2.99 FT AT 2 PM CDT.


RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...TUE MAY 11TH
HI    1 06 PM    STAGE    1.5    LO   11 23 PM    STAGE    0.1
RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...WED MAY 12TH
HI    1 29 PM    STAGE    1.6
RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...THU MAY 13TH
LO   12 03 AM    STAGE   -0.1    HI    2 00 PM    STAGE    1.8

BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 77.9F


.TODAY...
TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........38  38  36  36  36  35  35
WEATHER COV.....    ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....    TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............78  79  79  79  79  79  79
RH..............81  76  72  72  72  72  69
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   5   5   4   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7
MIX HGT (KM)....0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.13  13  10  10  10  8   8
TRANS SPD (M/S).6   6   4   4   4   4   4
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  20  20  20  20  20  20
SEAS............3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SEA STATE.......LIGHT CHOP...................

.TONIGHT...
TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........35     34     30     30     26     30
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE   NONE
TEMP............78     76     75     74     73     72
RH..............67     69     74     82     87     90
20 FT WIND......SW 3   S 3    S 2    SW 4   SW 5   SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2700   2600   600    600    700    700
MIX HGT (M).....820    790    180    180    210    210
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8    W 10   W 10   W 10   W 10   W 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     20     10     10
SEAS............3      2      2      2      2      2
SEA STATE.......SMOOTH TO LIGHT CHOP...................

.TUESDAY...
TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........30     35     30     30     26     22
WEATHER COV.....                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............72     73     75     76     77     77
RH..............91     87     82     82     79     76
20 FT WIND......W 6    NW 5   NW 4   NW 3   NW 3   NW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....700    700    1600   1600   2600   2800
MIX HGT (M).....210    210    490    490    790    850
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10   W 10   W 9    W 9    W 7    SW 9
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     20     20
SEAS............2      2      2      2      2      2
SEA STATE.......SMOOTH TO LIGHT CHOP...................

$$
FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS
REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT
.TAG 20100517.DEEPW.07/LIX