FNUS75 KMSO 171418
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR CAMP CREEK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
818 AM MDT MON MAY 17 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY AND MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE BURN SITE. DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND RESULTANT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 1500 MDT AND COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........HIGH CIRRUS IN THE MORNING...INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 1500 MDT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5-8 MPH INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON
                    10-14 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER 1300 MDT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE FROM NEARBY
                    SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 4-8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH
                    GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BAUCK/NOLTE
REQUESTED BY...GREGORY CAMPBELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100517.CAMPC.01/MSO