FNUS75 KMSO 171703
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR KELLYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1103 AM MDT MON MAY 17 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 MDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND A WARM AIR MASS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WILL SUPPORT WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE BURN SITE. SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE...WITH CUMULUS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR WITH INCREASING CIRRUS. BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE UP TO 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 6-10 MPH
                    WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-10 MPH TURNING DOWNVALLEY
                    5-7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5-7 MPH BECOMING WEST 11-14 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BAUCK/NOLTE
REQUESTED BY...RON SWANEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100517.KELLY.01/MSO