FNUS75 KMSO 171534
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR PETTY ROCK 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
934 AM MDT MON MAY 17 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 MDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A VERY COMPLEX AND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PERIOD CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.  FIRST...A VERY DRY LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASINGLY SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.  SECOND...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. WITH LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE VERY DRY...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  THE THIRD IMPACT IS A COLD FRONT AND THEN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER
                    OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84 BOTTOM TO 76 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT BOTTOM TO 19 PERCENT TOP.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE TO 5 MPH...BECOMING EAST TO NORTHEAST
                    5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO NEAR 10000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    VARIABLE 2-4 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS TO 5 MPH BECOMING WEST 13-15 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BAUCK
REQUESTED BY...JEFFREY HAYES
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100517.PETTY.01/MSO