FNUS75 KRIW 171752 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBO EAST RX...NPS GTP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 1152 AM MDT MON MAY 17 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR...ALONG WITH LOW RH'S. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE BURN SITE TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME AFTER TODAY...WITH RH'S RISING AS WELL. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...LIPSON .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME BUILDING CUMULUS BY 1500. (40-50 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 17 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH. LAL.................1. CWR.................ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10300-11300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (61900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (129400 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40. MAX HUMIDITY........68-71 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 4-7 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH TOWARD SUNRISE. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LAL.................1. CWR.................LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 15 TO 17 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (72400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (5300 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BY 1200 AT 5 TO 9 MPH AND THEN THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH BY 1400. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CWR.................27 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 13 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8900-35700 KNOT-FT). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...LIPSON REQUESTED BY...WAYNE PETSCH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100517.ELBOE.01/RIW