FNUS74 KLIX 191505 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1005 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... 1012MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MS AND CENTRAL LA. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF RANGES FROM 1015MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPA TO 1010MB NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SFC PRESSURE AT SPOT LOCATION...1013MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD SEERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. .WIND PROFILE... 15Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...W 4KT 1KFT...W 9KT 2KFT...W 5KT 3KFT...S 3KT 4KFT...S 5KT 5KFT...S 9KT MAX WIND...258/45KT 46.1KFT. DRY LAPSE RATE TO 550 FEET...THEN MOIST LAPSE RATE TO 5500 FEET...DRY TO 12000 FEET. ROUGHLY MOIST LAPSE RATE ABOVE. DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN...P.W. 1.05 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 191451Z AUTO 18005KT 10SM CLR 28/23 A2995 METAR KGAO 191442Z AUTO 20003KT 10SM CLR 27/22 A2994 METAR KHSA 191451Z 19003KT 10SM SCT015 BKN030 26/22 A2994 METAR KIPN 191455Z AUTO 19004KT 10SM CLR 26/22 A2996 METAR KMYT 191455Z AUTO 18007KT 7SM CLR 29/24 A2995 METAR KSPR 191500Z AUTO 19008KT 10SM 27/24 A2993 METAR KMDJ 191455Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM FEW013 SCT018 BKN037 29/24 A2995 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030...ISOLD TSTMS 18-02Z. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...FEW015-030...ISO TSTMS 29N/90W 18Z-24Z. TAF KHUM 191120Z 1912/2012 09003KT 4SM BR SCT250 FM191400 14004KT P6SM FEW035 FM191800 18007KT P6SM VCTS SCT045CB FM200200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= TAF KHSA 191400Z 1914/2012 14004KT P6SM SCT030 FM191800 17007KT P6SM SCT045 FM200200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR SCT200. LGT-MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. .RADAR... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND THE NORTHERNMOST POINT OF THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SW OF HOUMA. THESE SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY NE...BUT SHOULD PASS JUST WEST OF HOUMA ON THEIR CURRENT TRACK. NO LIGHTNING IS DETECTED AT THIS TIME. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.67 FT AT 0930 CDT...FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 1.89 FT AT 1230 CDT. WYCM6 1.58 FT AT 0930 CDT...FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 2.63 FT AT 1600 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 80.3F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........41 41 41 39 39 39 39 39 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NO SIG WX......................... TEMP............78 78 78 79 79 79 79 79 RH..............82 82 82 79 79 79 79 79 20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE NE NE NE NE E 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 6 6 6 3 3 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH............................. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........39 40 40 40 38 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............78 77 76 76 76 76 RH..............82 85 89 89 89 89 20 FT WIND......E 4 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1300 1400 1400 1400 1400 MIX HGT (M).....460 400 430 430 430 430 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 SW 2 S 7 S 7 S 13 S 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH................................... .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........38 30 30 30 30 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............76 77 79 80 81 81 RH..............87 85 81 78 76 76 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 E 6 E 6 E 7 E 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1300 1400 1400 1400 1400 MIX HGT (M).....430 400 430 430 430 430 TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 SE 13 SE 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH................................... $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100519.DEEPW.06/LIX