FNUS74 KLIX 191705 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... 1012MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHEASTERN LA. ABOUT 6MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A 1016MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPA TO 1010MB NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SFC PRESSURE AT SPOT LOCATION...1015MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. .WIND PROFILE... 17Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...VAR 3KT 1KFT...W 3KT 2KFT...SE 4KT 3KFT...SE 6KT 4KFT...SE 8KT 5KFT...S 8KT MAX WIND...256/45KT 51.6KFT. DRY LAPSE RATE TO 1800 FEET...WEAK INVERSION FROM 1800 FT TO 2600 FT...THEN MOIST LAPSE RATE TO 7000 FEET...DRY TO 13000 FEET. ROUGHLY MOIST LAPSE RATE ABOVE. DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN...P.W. 1.00 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 191651Z AUTO 20006KT 10SM CLR 29/23 A2995 METAR KGAO 191642Z AUTO 20005KT 10SM CLR 31/21 A2993 METAR KHSA 191650Z 00000KT 10SM SCT030 SCT045 29/20 A2993 METAR KIPN 191655Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 29/22 A2995 METAR KMYT 191655Z AUTO 19008KT 8SM FEW014 FEW019 31/24 A2995 METAR KSPR 191700Z AUTO 20011KT 10SM 27/24 A2992 METAR KMDJ 191655Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM FEW014 29/24 A2996 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030...ISOLD TSTMS 18-02Z. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...FEW015-030...ISO TSTMS 29N/90W 18Z-24Z. TAF KHUM 191400Z 1912/2012 15006KT P6SM SCT040 FM191800 18007KT P6SM VCTS SCT045CB FM200200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= TAF KHSA 191400Z 1914/2012 14004KT P6SM SCT030 FM191800 17007KT P6SM SCT045 FM200200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR SCT200. LGT-MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. .RADAR... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND THE NORTHERNMOST POINT OF THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA. CLOSEST SHOWER IS ABOUT 15 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA AND MOVING NORTHEAST. A FEW ISOLATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED ABOUT 50 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SPILL SITE. THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE SPILL SITE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING INFREQUENT LIGHTNING...LESS THAN ABOUT 5 STRIKES EVERY 5 MINUTES. ELSEWHERE...NO LIGHTNING IS DETECTED AT THIS TIME. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.79 FT AT 1130 CDT...FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 1.89 FT AT 1230 CDT. WYCM6 1.68 FT AT 1130 CDT...FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 2.63 FT AT 1600 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 80.3F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........41 40 40 40 40 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NO SIG WX............... TEMP............80 81 79 79 79 79 RH..............79 79 79 79 79 79 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 4 4 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 6 6 3 3 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 3 3 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH.................. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........40 40 40 40 38 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............78 77 76 76 76 76 RH..............82 85 89 89 89 89 20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1300 1400 1400 1400 1400 MIX HGT (M).....460 400 430 430 430 430 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 SW 2 S 7 S 7 S 13 S 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH.................................. .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........38 30 30 30 30 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............76 77 79 80 81 81 RH..............87 85 81 78 76 76 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 E 6 E 6 E 7 E 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1300 1400 1400 1400 1400 MIX HGT (M).....430 400 430 430 430 430 TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 SE 13 SE 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH.................................. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100519.DEEPW.08/LIX