FNUS74 KLIX 191903 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 203 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... 1012MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHEASTERN LA. RELATIVELY FLAT GRADIENT FROM THE EAST GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE WESTERN GULF. 1015MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPA WITH 1014MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF. 4MB GRADIENT FROM WESTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE AXIS TO CORPUS CHRISTI WHERE PRESSURE IS 1009MB. SFC PRESSURE AT SPOT LOCATION...1014MB .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENERAL NON-SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. .WIND PROFILE... 19Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...SE 6KT 1KFT...S 7KT 2KFT...S 9KT 3KFT...S 10KT 4KFT...S 11KT 5KFT...S 9KT MAX WIND...256/54KT 53.3KFT. ROUGHLY MOIST LAPSE RATE THROUGH 14000 FT WITH WEAK INVERSION FROM 14000 FT TO 18000 FT. ROUGHLY MOIST LAPSE RATE ABOVE 18000. DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN...P.W. 1.00 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 191851Z AUTO 21006KT 10SM CLR 29/23 A2992 METAR KGAO 191842Z AUTO 19008G15KT 10SM SCT030 31/22 A2992 METAR KHSA 191751Z 20004KT 10SM SCT033 SCT043 29/21 A2992 METAR KIPN 191835Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW025 27/22 A2994 METAR KMYT 191835Z AUTO 17007KT 9SM FEW015 FEW022 31/24 A2993 METAR KSPR 191840Z AUTO 20010KT 27/24 A2992 METAR KMDJ 191835Z AUTO 17006KT 10SM FEW014 SCT030 28/24 A2994 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030...ISOLD TSTMS 18-02Z. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...FEW015-030...ISO TSTMS 29N/90W 18Z-24Z. TAF KHUM 191744Z 1918/2018 18003KT P6SM SCT035CB BKN060 TEMPO 1919/1923 3SM -TSRA BKN035CB FM200200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= TAF KHSA 191744Z 1918/2018 09003KT P6SM SCT030 FM191900 17007KT P6SM SCT045 FM200200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR SCT200. LGT-MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. .RADAR... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF HOUMA. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...ABOUT 5 TO 10 STRIKES EVERY 5 MINUTES...AND ARE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.75 FT AT 1230 CDT...FORECAST LOW TIDE IS 0.36 FT AT MIDNIGHT CDT. WYCM6 2.04 FT AT 1230 CDT...FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 2.63 FT AT 1600 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 80.3F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........40 40 40 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NO SIG WX........ TEMP............79 79 79 79 RH..............79 79 79 79 20 FT WIND DIR..N NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 3 3 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH........... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........40 40 40 40 38 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............80 78 77 76 75 75 RH..............76 84 86 87 90 93 20 FT WIND......NE 2 SE 5 SE 6 SE 7 SE 7 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1300 1400 1400 1400 1400 MIX HGT (M).....460 400 430 430 430 430 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 SW 2 S 7 S 7 S 13 S 14 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 3 SW 2 S 7 S 7 S 13 S 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH.................................. .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........38 30 30 30 30 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............75 77 79 80 81 81 RH..............93 88 84 84 84 86 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 E 6 E 6 E 8 E 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 20 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1300 1400 1400 1400 1400 MIX HGT (M).....430 400 430 430 430 430 TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 SE 13 SE 13 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 SE 13 SE 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH.................................. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100519.DEEPW.10/LIX