FNUS74 KLIX 192005 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 305 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... 1012MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHEASTERN LA. RELATIVELY FLAT GRADIENT FROM THE EAST GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE WESTERN GULF. 1015MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPA WITH 1014MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF. 4MB GRADIENT FROM WESTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE AXIS TO CORPUS CHRISTI WHERE PRESSURE IS 1009MB. SFC PRESSURE AT SPOT LOCATION...1014MB .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAND AREAS. .WIND PROFILE... 20Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...S 5KT 1KFT...SW 9KT 2KFT...SW 11KT 3KFT...SW 10KT 4KFT...SW 9KT 5KFT...SW 9KT MAX WIND...256/54KT 53.6KFT. ROUGHLY MOIST LAPSE RATE THROUGH ENTIRE COLUMN. DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN...P.W. 1.03 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 191951Z AUTO 19007KT 10SM CLR 29/23 A2992 METAR KGAO 191942Z AUTO 19007KT 10SM CLR 29/22 A2991 METAR KHSA MISG METAR KIPN 191935Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW026 29/22 A2993 METAR KMYT 191935Z AUTO 20009KT 6SM HZ BKN018 BKN027 31/24 A2992 METAR KSPR 191940Z AUTO 21006KT 10SM 27/24 A2991 METAR KMDJ 191935Z AUTO 17008KT 10SM FEW015 FEW024 28/24 A2994 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030...ISOLD TSTMS 18-02Z. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...FEW015-030...ISO TSTMS 29N/90W 18Z-24Z. TAF KHUM 192000Z 1918/2018 18003KT P6SM SCT035CB BKN060 TEMPO 1920/1923 3SM -TSRA BKN035CB FM200200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= TAF KHSA 192000Z 1918/2018 17007KT P6SM SCT045 FM200200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR SCT200. LGT-MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. .RADAR... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF HOUMA. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...ABOUT 5 TO 10 STRIKES EVERY 5 MINUTES...AND ARE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ABOUT 65 MILES DUE WEST OF THE SPILL SITE. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.68 FT AT 1430 CDT...FORECAST LOW TIDE IS 0.36 FT AT MIDNIGHT CDT. WYCM6 2.09 FT AT 1430 CDT...FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 2.63 FT AT 1600 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 80.3F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........40 40 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NO SIG WX TEMP............79 79 79 RH..............79 79 79 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.5 1.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.5 0.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.6 3 3 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH.... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........40 40 40 40 38 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............80 78 77 76 75 75 RH..............76 84 86 87 90 93 20 FT WIND......NE 2 SE 5 SE 6 SE 7 SE 7 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1000 900 900 900 700 MIX HGT (M).....460 300 270 270 270 210 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 E 1 SE 6 SE 6 S 8 S 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH................................... .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........38 30 30 30 30 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............75 77 79 80 81 81 RH..............93 88 84 84 84 86 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 E 6 E 6 E 8 E 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 20 MIX HGT (FT)....700 1100 1200 1200 1300 1300 MIX HGT (M).....210 340 370 370 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 SE 8 SE 6 SE 6 E 9 SE 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH................................... $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100519.DEEPW.11/LIX