FNUS74 KLIX 192102 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 402 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... 1010MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHEASTERN LA. RELATIVELY FLAT GRADIENT FROM THE EAST GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE WESTERN GULF. 1014MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPA WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF. 4MB GRADIENT FROM WESTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE AXIS TO CORPUS CHRISTI WHERE PRESSURE IS 1009MB. SFC PRESSURE AT SPOT LOCATION...1014MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAND AREAS. .WIND PROFILE... 21Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...SW 5KT 1KFT...SW 9KT 2KFT...SW 7KT 3KFT...SW 9KT 4KFT...SW 8KT 5KFT...SW 9KT MAX WIND...261/51KT 48.2KFT. ROUGHLY MOIST LAPSE RATE THROUGH ENTIRE COLUMN. DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN...P.W. 1.05 IN. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 192051Z AUTO 19006KT 10SM CLR 28/23 A2991 METAR KGAO 192042Z AUTO 16006KT 10SM CLR 29/23 A2989 METAR KHSA 191955Z 18008KT 10SM SCT039 SCT044 29/21 A2989 METAR KIPN 192030Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 30/22 A2992 METAR KMYT 192035Z AUTO 21007KT 9SM CLR 31/24 A2991 METAR KSPR 192040Z AUTO 22006KT 10SM 27/24 A2989 METAR KMDJ 192035Z AUTO 18008KT 10SM FEW016 SCT023 SCT028 27/24 A2992 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030...ISOLD TSTMS 18-02Z. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...FEW015-030...ISO TSTMS 29N/90W 18Z-24Z. TAF KHUM 191744Z 1918/2018 18003KT P6SM SCT035CB BKN060 TEMPO 1919/1923 3SM -TSRA BKN035CB FM200200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= TAF KHSA 191744Z 1918/2018 09003KT P6SM SCT030 FM191900 17007KT P6SM SCT045 FM200200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...VFR SCT200. LGT-MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...VFR SCT020. MDT E WND. .RADAR... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF HOUMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY ORIENTED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH LINE THROUGH HOUMA. STORM MOTION IS STILL TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING INFREQUENT LIGHTNING...LESS THAN 5 STRIKES EVERY 5 MINUTES. THESE STORMS ARE ROUGHLY 140 MILES WEST OF THE SPILL LOCATION. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.59 FT AT 1450 CDT...FORECAST LOW TIDE IS 0.36 FT AT MIDNIGHT CDT. WYCM6 2.14 FT AT 1530 CDT...FORECAST HIGH TIDE IS 2.63 FT AT 1600 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 80.3F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........40 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NO SIG WX TEMP............79 79 RH..............79 79 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 TRANS SPD (M/S).1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 SEAS............1 1 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH... .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........40 40 40 40 38 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............80 78 77 76 75 75 RH..............76 84 86 87 90 93 20 FT WIND......NE 2 SE 5 SE 6 SE 7 SE 7 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1000 900 900 900 700 MIX HGT (M).....460 300 270 270 270 210 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 E 1 SE 6 SE 6 S 8 S 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH.................................... .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........38 30 30 30 30 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............75 77 79 80 81 81 RH..............93 88 84 84 84 86 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 E 6 E 6 E 8 E 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 20 MIX HGT (FT)....700 1100 1200 1200 1300 1300 MIX HGT (M).....210 340 370 370 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 SE 8 SE 6 SE 6 E 9 SE 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......SMOOTH.................................... $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100519.DEEPW.12/LIX