FNUS73 KAPX 202023 AAA FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR GRAYLING KALKASKA CO FIRES...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 423 PM EDT THU MAY 20 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1348 EDT ON MAY 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY... AND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY...BUT THE RAIN THREAT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN DURING THE MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGHER ACROSS AREAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WILDFIRE ACTIVITY (MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72). HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO BE ALERT TO THIS POSSIBILITY. FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT...A LITTLE MORE HEATING MAY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH WOULD DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT. .LATE THIS AFTERNOON... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....85. MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 0 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11600 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 6. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX POOR(0). MIXING HEIGHT.......11600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 0 MPH. TIME (EDT) 5PM SKY (%).........27 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............83 RH..............15 20 FT WIND DIR..SW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 HAINES INDEX....6 SMOKE DISP......0 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....49. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 6 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). MIXING HEIGHT.......10600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 6 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........27 27 16 16 16 16 16 16 20 20 20 20 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............81 78 75 71 66 62 59 58 57 55 54 53 RH..............17 19 24 31 43 56 64 67 69 77 80 86 20 FT WIND DIR..S SE E E E E SE S S S SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 3 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 200 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1100). MIXING HEIGHT.......200-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........20 62 62 87 88 88 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............53 54 61 67 70 71 RH..............86 80 60 47 41 41 20 FT WIND......SE 2 SE 5 SE 7 SE 8 SE 9 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 100 200 800 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100520.GRAYL.01/APX