FNUS73 KAPX 211046 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BERNATHY...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 646 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1645 EDT ON MAY 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BRING NEEDED RAINFALL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AT THE BURN SITE OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP 20 MPH POSSIBLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........72 AT IGNITION...MAX 75. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500). TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........68 82 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............71 72 RH..............39 38 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 SMOKE DISP......500 500 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....58. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 18 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........82 82 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............70 68 66 64 62 60 60 61 61 60 60 59 RH..............42 47 52 58 65 72 75 72 75 78 81 83 20 FT WIND DIR..SE E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 SMOKE DISP......400 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...BSTEARNS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100521.BERNA.01/APX