FNUS73 KAPX 211642 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BERNATHY...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1242 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1645 EDT ON MAY 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND POTENTIAL...AS SUSTAINED WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGING AROUND 11 MPH OR SO. THE CONCERN IS WIND GUST POTENTIAL...WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN THE LOW LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO TAP SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM AND BRING SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 30 MPH DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS POTENTIAL HOWEVER IS PREDICATED ON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 70S...AND CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. CURRENT FORECAST WILL CALL FOR WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE...BUT BE AWARE THAT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT WINDS MAY GUST HIGHER. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 2 PM. CALL WITH QUESTIONS. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...RAINFALL TOTALS 2-8PM LESS THAN 0.10 INCH. TEMPERATURE.........70 AT IGNITION...MAX 71. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 13 MPH...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1700-2200 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500). TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........98 100 WEATHER COV..... SCT WEATHER TYPE.... RW TEMP............70 67 RH..............47 52 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..10 11 20 FT WIND GUST.18 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 SMOKE DISP......500 500 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....58. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 18 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............66 65 65 64 63 63 62 62 61 60 60 59 RH..............56 60 63 65 67 67 70 72 75 78 81 83 20 FT WIND DIR..SE E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.19 18 16 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 SMOKE DISP......400 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 $$ FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS REQUESTED BY...BSTEARNS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100521.BERNA.01/APX