FNUS73 KDLH 211855
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR 18 MILE RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
155 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED SPOT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER THAN
EXPECTED HUMIDITY VALUES. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY FILTER INTO PARTS OF THE ARROWHEAD AROUND THE
PRESCRIBED BURN LOCATION. MEANWHILE...SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RAMP UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AS WELL. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS INDICATING SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO FORM AROUND ELY AND AREAS NORTHWARD. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
COULD BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE POTENTIAL BURN LOCATION WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER BEFORE 7 PM CDT. HUMIDITY VALUES
ALSO DROPPED MORE THAN EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD NOT GET BELOW 20
PERCENT TODAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWER.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (53200).

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
TEMP............76  77  77  78  76  74
RH..............25  24  23  21  23  25
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   7   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.9   10  11  10  12  9

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
                    PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 20
                    PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 3 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5300).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............66     59     54     51     48     47
RH..............45     60     71     83     96     100
20 FT WIND DIR..SE     SE     S      S      SE     SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6      5      4      3      3      3
20 FT WIND GUST.12     10     6      5      5      5

$$
FORECASTER...BRIAN
REQUESTED BY...CROOK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100521.18MIL.02/DLH