FNUS72 KJAX 270807
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MIDDLE HALE TEAM...DOF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
407 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN.

RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES...PERHAPS BRIEFLY
REACH CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AT TIMES OF MAX TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
SHORT TO WARRANT AN RFW. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN RH'S ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND NORTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH BY
                    LATE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6600-6700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12
                    TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....89.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........72     64     56     56
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............80     85     88     87
RH..............60     49     43     44
20 FT WIND......NW 5   NW 7   N 8    N 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1500   4100   6700   6700
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 6   NW 9   N 13   N 13
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
RH..............49     58     69     74     77     80
20 FT WIND......NE 6   SE 5   SE 3   SE 2   SE 1   S 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....6600   1500   1500   900    200    200
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 12  E 9    E 9    SE 6   S 3    S 3
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     10     10     10     10     10

.FRIDAY...

MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800-6900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
                    9 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....69.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...WOLF
REQUESTED BY...BARRY L  COULLIETTE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100527.MIDDL.01/JAX