FNUS72 KJAX 271130
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHANTY POND...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
730 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EDT ON MAY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MARION COUNTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THEN
SHIFT TO SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
15 MPH.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN.

MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY
OVER MARION COUNTY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN RH'S ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 3 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....81.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........30     50     62     65     60
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............80     86     88     88     87
RH..............68     52     43     41     47
20 FT WIND......NW 5   NW 6   N 8    N 8    NE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1400   3900   6400   6400   5700
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 6   NW 9   N 12   N 12   NE 8
DISPERSION INDX.11     43     81     81     52
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     15     30     40     40
LAL.............1      1      2      2      2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........55     50     50     44     37     37
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............85     80     75     73     71     70
RH..............47     57     69     76     83     88
20 FT WIND......NE 6   E 3    SE 2   S 2    S 1    SW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.       5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....5700   1500   1500   900    200    200
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 8   SE 5   SE 5   S 3    SW 3   SW 3
LVORI...........5      5      5      5      5      5
DISPERSION INDX.52     2      2      2      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............2      1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...RAMSAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100527.SHANT.01/JAX