FNUS74 KLIX 271109 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 609 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AT 0600 CDT...WK 1014MB HIGH PRES CNTRD NR 27.5N/90W. 1010MB TROF ALG W FL CST FROM APALACHEE BAY TO KFMY. 1012MB ELY WAVE ALG 93W...MOVG W 7KT. 3MB GRADIENT HIGH TO FL TROF. 2MB GRADIENT HIGH TO ELY WAVE. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION 1013MB. HYBRID CHANNEL SAT IMAGERY DETECTING TWO DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE NE GLFMEX...THE CLOSEST EXTENDS FM 72NM SSW OF DESTIN FL /KDTS/ TO 174NM S OF KDTS...MOVG WSW 15KT. GUSTS 20-25KT LKLY WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED AND TRENDS...ETA SPILL LOCATION AROUND 1015 CDT. 06Z WRF MODEL ALSO INDICATED INITIATION OF CONVECTION IN THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS AROUND 0900 CDT. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON SVR TSTMS MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS...5% CHC SVR DURG AFTN HRS. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 10Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...NNW 4KT 250FT...NW 5KT 500FT...NW 5KT 1KFT...NW 6KT 2KFT...NE 8KT 3KFT...NE 11KT 4KFT...NE 9KT 5KFT...NE 11KT MAX WIND...278/35KT 46KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 1100FT...SHALLOW LAPSE TO 1800FT...DRY LAPSE TO 5900FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV 5900FT. DRY TO 650MB/12.3KFT...SEMI-MOIST AT 650MB...V SHAPED DRY ABV 650MB. LI -4. SBCAPE 1065 J/KG. P.W. 1.26 IN. WET MICROBURST PROFILE. FCST /30R75/ STORM MOTION 027/05KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 271051Z AUTO 29003KT 5SM BR CLR 22/21 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP133 T02170206 TSNO METAR KGAO 271103Z AUTO 00000KT 20/19 A2993 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 270150Z 00000KT 7SM BKN050 22/22 A2993 METAR KIPN 271055Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 27/21 A2990 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 271055Z AUTO 34004KT 8SM CLR 26/22 A2992 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 271055Z AUTO 04008KT 10SM 27/21 A2992 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 271055Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 27/23 A2993 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 271055Z AUTO 33009KT 10SM CLR 26/22 A2991 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030/BKN200. LGT VRB WND. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...FEW020 SCT100. LGT NLY WND. BTWN 12Z-16Z...OCNL G25KT OUTFLW GUSTS MOVG WSW 16KT FM 87W THRU 90W. KHUM 270523Z 2706/2806 VRB03KT P6SM VCSH FEW040 SCT250 FM271500 VRB05KT P6SM SCT040 PROB30 2721/2724 5SM -TSRA BKN030CB KHSA 270523Z 2706/2806 00000KT 4SM BR SCT250 TEMPO 2709/2713 1SM BR VV005 FM271500 VRB05KT P6SM SCT040 PROB30 2720/2723 5SM -TSRA BKN030CB AMD NOT SKED= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020...OCNL MVFR BKN020 ISOLD TSRA. LGT W-NW WND XCP G40KT NR TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...MVFR BKN020...OCNL SCT020. ISOLD TSRA. NW WND 10KT XCP G40KT NR TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...VFR BKN-OVC030...SCT TSRA. .RADAR...AT 0600 CDT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 0500 ABOUT 50NM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...187NM W OF SPILL SITE...MOVG S 10KT. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER WAS DEVELOPING 97NM WSW OF SPILL SITE...MOVG S 10KT. A TSTM WAS INDICATED FM KMOB 116NM E OF SPILL SITE ALG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MOVG W 10KT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS ALSO DEVLPG WELL W OF THE SPILL SITE NEAR 94W IN ASSOC WITH ELY WAVE. CELL MOVMT SE 15KT. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.07 FT AT 0523 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.29 FT AT 0755 CDT. WYCM6 1.63 FT AT 0523 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.57 FT AT 1039 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 81.5F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........37 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 35 35 35 35 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............79 79 79 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 RH..............72 72 72 69 72 72 72 72 72 72 69 69 20 FT WIND DIR..NW N N N N N N N N NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.3 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 TRANS SPD (M/S).1 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 CEILINGS........S25............B25.......S30.................... SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........35 35 39 39 46 44 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP............80 80 80 80 80 80 RH..............69 69 72 74 74 77 20 FT WIND......W 4 W 5 W 7 W 10 W 11 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....3500 3000 2400 2400 1900 1900 MIX HGT (M).....1070 910 730 730 580 580 TRANSPORT WIND..N 9 N 9 N 9 N 9 N 9 NW 12 TRAN WIND (M/S).N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 NW 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC CH CH CH CH .FRIDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........44 40 40 40 50 50 WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............80 80 81 81 81 81 RH..............77 77 77 77 77 76 20 FT WIND......NW 10 NW 8 NW 7 NW 6 NW 6 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 2200 2800 2800 3200 3200 MIX HGT (M).....580 670 850 850 980 980 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 12 NW 13 NW 14 NW 14 NW 13 N 10 TRAN WIND (M/S).NW 5 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6 N 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......CH CH CH CH LC LC .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MEMORIAL DAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100527.DEEPW.03/LIX