FNUS74 KLIX 271221 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 721 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AT 0700 CDT...WK 1014MB HIGH PRES CNTRD NR 27.5N/90W. 1010MB TROF ALG W FL CST FROM APALACHEE BAY TO KFMY. 1012MB ELY WAVE ALG 93W...MOVG W 7KT. 3MB GRADIENT HIGH TO FL TROF. 2MB GRADIENT HIGH TO ELY WAVE. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION 1013MB. HYBRID CHANNEL SAT IMAGERY CONTINUED TO DETECT A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE NE GLFMEX...FROM 71NM SE OF KPNS TO 193NM SE OF KPNS...MOVG SW 16KT. GUSTS 20-25KT LKLY WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED AND TRENDS...ETA SPILL LOCATION AROUND 1015 CDT. 06Z WRF MODEL ALSO INDICATED INITIATION OF CONVECTION IN THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS AROUND 0900 CDT. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON SVR TSTMS MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS...5% CHC SVR DURG AFTN HRS. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 11Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...WNW 10KT 250FT...WNW 10KT 500FT...WNW 10KT 1KFT...WNW 10KT 2KFT...NW 7KT 3KFT...NE 9KT 4KFT...NE 9KT 5KFT...NE 7KT MAX WIND...279/41KT 46KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 1100FT...SHALLOW LAPSE TO 2500FT...DRY LAPSE TO 6400FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV 6400FT. DRY TO 650MB/12.3KFT...SEMI-MOIST AT 650MB...V SHAPED DRY ABV 620MB. LI -5. SBCAPE 1091 J/KG. P.W. 1.29 IN. WET MICROBURST PROFILE. FCST /30R75/ STORM MOTION 029/07KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 271151Z AUTO 31003KT 6SM BR CLR 23/22 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP136 T02330217 10233 20217 51011 TSNO METAR KGAO 271203Z AUTO 30003KT 21/20 A2994 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 271153Z 00000KT 5SM BR CLR 20/20 A2993 METAR KIPN 271200Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM FEW022 27/21 A2992 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 271155Z AUTO 35004KT 8SM FEW110 26/22 A2993 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 271155Z AUTO 02010KT 10SM 27/21 A2993 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 271155Z AUTO 05003KT 10SM CLR 27/22 A2994 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 271155Z AUTO 35007KT 10SM CLR 26/23 A2992 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030/BKN200. LGT VRB WND...AFT 17Z CHC CIGS SCT-BKN035 1SM +TSRA G35KT. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...FEW020 SCT100. LGT NLY WND. BTWN 12Z-16Z...OCNL G25KT OUTFLW GUSTS MOVG WSW 16KT FM 87W THRU 90W. KHUM 271120Z 2712/2812 36003KT P6SM FEW020 FEW250 TEMPO 2712/2714 4SM BR FM271500 01005KT P6SM SCT020 FM271800 01005KT P6SM SCT035CB SCT250 FM272100 15006KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB BKN250 FM280300 21005KT P6SM FEW060 BKN250 FM280600 27005KT P6SM SKC KHSA 271209Z 2712/2812 00000KT 5SM BR SKC TEMPO 2712/2714 5SM BR FM271500 35005KT P6SM SCT025 FM271900 22007KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB SCT250 FM280200 32002KT P6SM FEW070 BKN250 FM280600 32002KT P6SM SKC= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020...OCNL MVFR BKN020 ISOLD TSRA. LGT W-NW WND XCP G40KT NR TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...MVFR BKN020...OCNL SCT020. ISOLD TSRA. NW WND 10KT XCP G40KT NR TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...VFR BKN-OVC030...SCT TSRA. .RADAR...AT 0700 CDT SHWRS WERE INCRG IN COVERAGE NR AND SE OF THE LWR CHANDELEUR ISLANDS...MOVG SSW 13KT. WATERSPOUTS AND G25KT PSBL WITH THESE SHWRS. LGTNG NOT CURRENTLY DETECTED BUT MAY ONSET WITHIN THE HOUR. A TSTM WAS INDICATED FM KMOB 105NM E OF SPILL SITE ALG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MOVG W 10KT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS ALSO WELL W OF THE SPILL SITE NEAR 94W IN ASSOC WITH ELY WAVE. CELL MOVMT SE 15KT. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.30 FT AT 0638 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.29 FT AT 0755 CDT. WYCM6 1.81 FT AT 0638 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.57 FT AT 1039 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 81.5F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........36 36 36 36 36 36 35 35 35 35 35 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............79 79 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 RH..............72 72 69 72 72 72 72 72 72 69 69 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 2.6 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 CEILINGS........S25......B25.....S30....................... SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........35 35 39 39 46 44 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP............80 80 80 80 80 80 RH..............69 69 72 74 74 77 20 FT WIND......W 4 W 5 W 7 W 10 W 11 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....3500 3000 2400 2400 1900 1900 MIX HGT (M).....1070 910 730 730 580 580 TRANSPORT WIND..N 9 N 9 N 9 N 9 N 9 NW 12 TRAN WIND (M/S).N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 NW 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC CH CH CH CH .FRIDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........44 40 40 40 50 50 WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............80 80 81 81 81 81 RH..............77 77 77 77 77 76 20 FT WIND......NW 10 NW 8 NW 7 NW 6 NW 6 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 2200 2800 2800 3200 3200 MIX HGT (M).....580 670 850 850 980 980 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 12 NW 13 NW 14 NW 14 NW 13 N 10 TRAN WIND (M/S).NW 5 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6 N 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MEMORIAL DAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...JULIA RUTHFORD TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100527.DEEPW.04/LIX