FNUS74 KLIX 271409 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 909 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AT 0900 CDT...1015MB HIGH PRES CNTRD NR 28N/90W. 1011MB TROF ALG W FL CST FROM APALACHEE BAY TO KFMY. 1012MB ELY WAVE ALG 94W...MOVG W 7KT. 4MB GRADIENT HIGH TO FL TROF. 2MB GRADIENT HIGH TO ELY WAVE. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION 1014MB. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BNDRY MOVG S 10KT FM LWR CHANDELEURS TO 30N TAMPA BAY. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INDICATED ALG THIS OUTFLOW...PSBL FC/WATERSPOUTS AND G25KT ALG THIS FEATURE. CURRENT TRENDS...ETA SPILL LOCATION ABT 1100CDT. A CLUSTER OF SRHA/PSBL TSRA NR 29N/87W WAS TRAVERSING WWD ALG THIS OUTFLOW BNDRY. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON SVR TSTMS MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS...5% CHC SVR DURG AFTN HRS. ...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER CHANDELEUR ISLANDS...APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI... THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING TO EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 10 AM. MARINE SHOWERS CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. MOVE SAFELY AWAY IF A WATERSPOUT IS SPOTTED. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 13Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...NW 7KT 250FT...NW 7KT 500FT...NW 8KT 1KFT...NW 9KT 2KFT...NW 7KT 3KFT...NE 10KT 4KFT...NE 8KT 5KFT...NE 6KT MAX WIND...280/42KT 46KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 950FT...SHALLOW LAPSE TO 2500FT...DRY LAPSE TO 6100FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV 6100FT. LT 5C DWPT DEP TO 6000FT...DRY TO 700MB...MOIST LAYER 700-600MB...V-SHAPED DRY ABV 600MB. LI -6...SBCAPE 2304 J/KG...P.W. 1.30 IN. WET MICROBURST PROFILE. FCST /30R75/ STORM MOTION 026/05KT. 12Z KLIX SOUNDING SFC...000/00KT 1KFT...025/07KT 2KFT...030/05KT 3KFT...355/05KT 4KFT...025/09KT 6KFT...035/09KT MAX WIND...295/38KT 51KFT. SFC INVERSION TO 1100FT...DRY LAPSE TO 6600FT...ISOTHERMAL LAPSE TO 8000FT...DRY LAPSE TO 12.2KFT. WARM LAPSE TO 13KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV 13KFT. MOIST TO 1000MB/500FT...SEMI-MOIST TO 800MB/5000FT... V-SHAPE DRY ABV 800MB...MUCH DRIER ABV 550MB. LI -6. SBCAPE 2656 J/KG. P.W. 1.52 IN. WET MICROBURST PROFILE. FCST /30R75/ STORM MOTION 039/05KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 271351Z AUTO 35006KT 7SM CLR 28/24 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140 T02780239 TSNO METAR KGAO 271403Z AUTO 32006KT CLR 26/23 A2995 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 271350Z 02003KT 10SM CLR 26/22 A2994 METAR KIPN 271400Z AUTO VRB06KT 10SM SCT022 29/21 A2993 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 271355Z AUTO 35004KT 7SM CLR 28/22 A2994 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 271355Z AUTO 03010KT 10SM 27/22 A2994 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 271355Z AUTO 05005KT 9SM CLR 27/24 A2995 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 271355Z AUTO 35009KT 9SM CLR 26/23 A2993 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030/BKN200. LGT VRB WND...AFT 17Z CHC CIGS BKN035CB VSBY 1SM +TSRA G35KT. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...FEW020 SCT100. LGT NLY WND. BTWN 12Z-16Z...OCNL G25KT OUTFLW GUSTS FM 29.2N/89W TO 28.7N/87W...MOVG S 10KT. KHUM 271120Z 2712/2812 36003KT P6SM FEW020 FEW250 TEMPO 2712/2714 4SM BR FM271500 01005KT P6SM SCT020 FM271800 01005KT P6SM SCT035CB SCT250 FM272100 15006KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB BKN250 FM280300 21005KT P6SM FEW060 BKN250 FM280600 27005KT P6SM SKC KHSA 271257Z 2713/2812 36004KT P6SM SKC TEMPO 2713/2714 5SM BR FM271500 35005KT P6SM SCT025 FM271900 22007KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB SCT250 FM280200 32002KT P6SM FEW070 BKN250 FM280600 32002KT P6SM SKC= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...VFR SCT020...OCNL MVFR BKN020 ISOLD TSRA. LGT W-NW WND XCP G40KT NR TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...MVFR BKN020...OCNL SCT020. ISOLD TSRA. NW WND 10KT XCP G40KT NR TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...VFR BKN-OVC030...SCT TSRA. .RADAR...AT 0900 CDT SHWRS AND ISOLD TSRA CONTD TO APRCH THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER...MOVG S 15KT. WATERSPOUTS AND G25KT PSBL WITH THESE CELLS. A SHWR WAS INDICATED 88NM E OF SPILL SITE ALG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MOVG W 10KT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS ALSO WELL W OF THE SPILL SITE NEAR 94W IN ASSOC WITH ELY WAVE. CELL MOVMT SE 15KT. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.26 FT AT 0838 CDT FALLING OFF HIGH TIDE. WYCM6 2.11 FT AT 0825 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.57 FT AT 1039 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 81.5F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........36 36 36 36 35 35 35 35 35 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 RH..............69 72 72 72 72 72 72 69 69 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 CEILINGS........S25..B25.....S30................... SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........35 35 39 39 46 44 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP............80 80 80 80 80 80 RH..............69 69 72 74 74 77 20 FT WIND......W 4 W 5 W 7 W 10 W 11 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....3500 3000 2400 2400 1900 1900 MIX HGT (M).....1070 910 730 730 580 580 TRANSPORT WIND..N 9 N 9 N 9 N 9 N 9 NW 12 TRAN WIND (M/S).N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 NW 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC CH CH CH CH .FRIDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........44 40 40 40 50 50 WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............80 80 81 81 81 81 RH..............77 77 77 77 77 76 20 FT WIND......NW 10 NW 8 NW 7 NW 6 NW 6 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 2200 2800 2800 3200 3200 MIX HGT (M).....580 670 850 850 980 980 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 12 NW 13 NW 14 NW 14 NW 13 N 10 TRAN WIND (M/S).NW 5 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6 N 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......CH CH CH CH LC LC .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MEMORIAL DAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...JULIA RUTHFORD TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100527.DEEPW.06/LIX