FNUS74 KLIX 291414 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 914 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AT 0900 CDT...A 1007MB TROF OF LOW PRES WAS ALG THE N GLFMEX CST FM VERMILION PARISH CST...THRU N.O...ALG MS CST TO FL CST NR KPAM...STNRY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVLPG ALG THIS TROF NR THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...5% CHC SVR DURG AFTN HRS OVER LAND...5% CHC SVR OVR GLFMEX EVE/NIGHT. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...5% CHC SVR DURG AFTN HRS OVER LAND...5% CHC SVR OVR GLFMEX EVE/NIGHT. ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS EAST OF CHANDELEURS... AT 855 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY FROM 2 TO 8NM EAST OF THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. MARINE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. MOVE SAFELY AWAY IF A WATERSPOUT IS SPOTTED. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 13Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... NW 4KT 250FT... NW 3KT 500FT...WNW 3KT 1KFT... W 4KT 2KFT... NW 2KT 3KFT... SE 2KT 4KFT... E 4KT 5KFT... E 4KT MAX WIND...280/61KT 42.8KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 1500FT...ISOTHERMAL TO 3500FT...DRY LAPSE TO 7400FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV 7400F. DRY TO 850MB...MOIST LAYER 800 TO 720MB...DRY ABV 720MB. LI -7. SBCAPE 2358 J/KG. P.W. 1.65 IN. 75R30 STM MOTION 326/2KT. 12Z KLIX SOUNDING SFC...000/00KT 1KFT...305/05KT 2KFT...345/05KT 3KFT...020/05KT 4KFT...020/05KT 5KFT...350/10KT MAX WIND...275/52KT 33KFT. MARINE LAYER SFC TO 700FT...ISOTHERMAL TO 1600FT...DRY LAPSE TO 4500FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV 4500F. SATURATED TO 600FT...PARALLEL CURVES 6C SPREAD TO 610MB...DRY ABV. LI -9. SBCAPE 3460 J/KG. P.W. 1.53 IN. 75R30 STM MOTION 004/4KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 291351Z AUTO 31007KT 9SM CLR 28/22 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP097 T02780222 TSNO METAR KGAO 291403Z AUTO 23003KT CLR 29/22 A2982 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 291350Z 03007KT 7SM CLR 24/20 A2981 METAR KIPN 291400Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM CLR 29/22 A2982 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 291355Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM CLR 27/21 A2982 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 291355Z AUTO 15019KT 10SM 27/23 A2981 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 291355Z AUTO 28012KT 10SM CLR 27/22 A2983 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 291355Z AUTO 00000G10KT 10SM CLR 29/23 A2980 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR CIGS OVC100 W OF MS RVR...OTHWS VFR SCT035. BTWN 19Z-01Z VFR SCT045...XCP LCL MVFR 1SM TSRA BKN025CB G45KT A100. AFT 01Z VFR BKN-OVC120. AFT 04Z...VFR CAVOK. MARINE AREA BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...N OF 29N VFR CAVOK. S OF 29N MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC025...AREAS 2SM TSRA G25KT. AFT 15Z VFR SCT-BKN100. AFT 02Z VFR SCT030...XPT LCL 1SM TSRA BKN020CB G40KT MOVG N-S FM CST. KHUM 291120Z 2912/3012 VRB05KT P6SM FEW030 TEMPO 2912/2913 5SM BR FM291500 VRB05KT P6SM SCT040 FM292100 19006KT P6SM SCT050CB FM300300 19004KT P6SM SCT060CB FM300900 20003KT 4SM BR SCT250 KHSA 291120Z 2912/3012 00000KT P6SM SCT060 TEMPO 2912/2913 6SM BR FM291400 VRB04KT P6SM FEW035 FM291700 VRB05KT P6SM SCT050CB FM292100 22004KT P6SM SCT060CB BKN250 FM300300 19002KT P6SM FEW080 FM301000 VRB02KT P6SM FEW035CB= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MVFR BKN020 BKN-OVC040. LGT S WND XCP G35KT SCT TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...VFR BKN035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...VFR SCT030...ISOLD TSRA. LGT W WND. .RADAR...AT 0900 CDT...TSTMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVLPG 68NM-78NM NNE OF SPILL LOCATION...MOVG S 5KT. OCNL LGTNG AND FC/WATERSPOUTS PSBL THESE CELLS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.16 FT AT 0823 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.29 FT AT 0926 CDT. WYCM6 1.67 FT AT 0825 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.60 FT AT 1310 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 81.1F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........43 43 43 43 54 54 54 54 54 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............82 83 83 82 83 83 83 83 83 RH..............73 74 72 70 66 66 69 70 70 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 4 3 2 3 4 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 CEILINGS........O80.....B30....................... SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC SM SM SM SM SM SM LC LC .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........54 40 40 40 38 38 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............82 81 80 80 79 78 RH..............69 71 72 74 77 79 20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 5 S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2700 2700 2700 2400 2300 MIX HGT (M).....850 820 820 820 730 700 TRANSPORT WIND..W 6 NW 2 E 5 E 5 SE 8 S 9 TRAN WIND (M/S).W 3 NW 1 E 2 E 2 SE 4 S 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 30 30 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........38 51 51 51 44 44 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............77 78 81 83 84 84 RH..............84 78 65 61 59 59 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 5 S 4 S 5 S 6 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 10 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2300 2300 2600 2600 2800 2700 MIX HGT (M).....700 700 790 790 850 820 TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 6 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 SE 5 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 4 S 3 SE 1 SE 1 SE 1 SE 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 50 50 SEAS............2 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MEMORIAL DAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...JULIA RUTHFORD TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100529.DEEPW.05/LIX