FNUS74 KLIX 301206 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 706 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AT 0700 CDT...A 1009MB TROF WAS ORIENTED E-W ALG MS COAST NR THE MS SOUND ISLANDS...INTO SE LA NR KMSY...STNRY. AN UPPER LVL LOW PRES SYS CONTS TO SPIN OVR THE LWR MS VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY ONSET STG TO SVR TSTMS OVR LAND AREAS LT THIS MORN...MOVG INTO THE CSTL WATERS THIS EVE/OVRNGT. 4MB PRES GRADIENT ACRS GLFMEX...1012MB FL W CST TO 1008MB TX CST. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION IS 1010MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...5% CHC SVR DURG AFTN HRS OVER LAND...5% CHC SVR OVR GLFMEX EVE/NIGHT. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRAND ISLE WITH POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT... AT 623 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WINDS 25 KNOTS AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT...5 NM EAST OF GRAND ISLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. ...BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WATERSPOUTS OVER THE WATERS... AT 646 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS...FROM 48 NM SOUTH OF THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND TO 15 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS OF MS RVR...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. THESE STORMS ARE BEYOND 20NM OF MS CANYON 252 BUT ENROUTE FROM MOUTH OF MS RIVER. THE ...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... INCLUDING MISSISSIPPI SOUND...UNTIL 730 AM CDT AT 642 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER 11 NM SOUTHWEST OF MISSISSIPPI SOUND...OR ABOUT OVER CAT ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. THIS STORM MAY ALSO BE PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 11Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... S 5KT 250FT... S 6KT 500FT... S 7KT 1KFT... SW 8KT 2KFT... SW 9KT 3KFT... SW 8KT 4KFT...WSW 6KT 5KFT...WNW 5KT MAX WIND...275/65KT 35.7KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 3000FT...ISOTHERMAL TO 4800FT. PSEUDO ABV 4800FT. INV-V TO 950MB...V-DRY TO 850MB...CONV CURVES TO 650MB...SATURATED ABV 650MB...LI -5. SBCAPE 2167 J/KG. P.W. 1.56 IN. 30R75 STM MOTION 274/7KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 301151Z AUTO 13004KT 5SM BR CLR 24/23 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP105 70051 T02440228 10244 20233 53013 TSNO METAR KGAO 301143Z AUTO 07003KT 21/21 A2983 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 301155Z 00000KT 4SM BR CLR 19/19 A2985 METAR KIPN 301155Z AUTO 20007KT 10SM SCT020 27/23 A2986 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 301155Z AUTO 21008KT 7SM CLR 27/23 A2985 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 301155Z AUTO 24007KT 10SM 27/23 A2983 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 301155Z AUTO 19009KT 10SM FEW018 28/24 A2985 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 301155Z AUTO 21005KT 10SM CLR 28/22 A2984 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR CAVOK...AREAS MVFR VSBY 4-6SM BR TIL 14Z... LCL IFR 1/2SM FG MS CST TIL 14Z. AFT 15Z...VFR SCT025 ISOLD SHRA TOPS 250. AFT 17Z VFR SCT-BKN035...SCT 2SM TSRA BKN025CB G40KT TOPS 450. AFT 01Z VFR FEW040 BKN100. AFT 04Z VFR CAVOK...LCL MVFR 4-6SM BR AFT 09Z. MARINE AREAS...BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...VFR SCT020...SCT MVFR 3SM SHRA BKN020CB G25KT TOPS 350. AFT 22Z...VFR SCT030 ISOLD MVFR 1SM TSRA BKN025CB G30KT TOPS 450. KHUM 301129Z 3012/3112 VRB03KT P6SM SKC FM301400 18004KT P6SM FEW030CB FM301700 19007KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB TEMPO 3019/3023 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN025CB FM302300 18004KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB FM310300 VRB03KT 6SM BR SKC KHSA 301129Z 3012/3112 VRB02KT P6SM SCT120 FM301600 17005KT P6SM FEW040CB FM301800 18006KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB TEMPO 3021/3101 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN025CB FM310100 15003KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB FM310400 VRB02KT P6SM BKN250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR SCT015...SCT TSRA. LGT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUE...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT S WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WED...VFR SCT030...SCT TSRA. LGT W WND. .RADAR...AT 0700 CDT...BAND OF SCT-NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS INDICATED 105NM SW TO 60NM N OF SPILL LOCATION...CLOSEST 25NM N...MOVG N 16KT. LGTNG 34NM W OF SPILL LOCATION. COVRG AND INTENSITY INCRG PAST HR. PSBL NMRS WATERSPOUTS THESE CELLS. LGTNG MOST FQT NRN HALF OF BAND. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.74 FT AT 0623 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.05 FT AT 0954 CDT. WYCM6 1.51 FT AT 0623 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.46 FT AT 1255 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 82.6F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........51 51 51 51 51 51 55 55 55 55 55 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............78 79 81 82 83 83 84 84 84 84 83 RH..............81 79 75 72 70 69 68 68 67 68 69 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 TRANS SPD (M/S).5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 CEILINGS........S25........S30......B30................... SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........55 48 48 48 56 56 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 82 80 79 79 79 RH..............70 73 74 76 77 77 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 4 SE 2 SE 3 SE 5 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 2600 2400 2400 2400 2200 MIX HGT (M).....820 790 730 730 730 670 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 SW 6 S 3 S 3 SE 8 S 9 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 4 SW 3 S 1 S 1 SE 4 S 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............2 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC SM SM SM LC LC .MEMORIAL DAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........56 36 36 36 46 46 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 80 82 82 83 83 RH..............78 76 71 69 67 68 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2200 2400 2600 2600 2700 2700 MIX HGT (M).....670 730 790 790 820 820 TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 SE 7 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 4 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............1 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...JULIA RUTHFORD TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100530.DEEPW.03/LIX