FNUS74 KLIX 301409 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 909 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AT 0900 CDT...A 1011MB TROF WAS ORIENTED E-W ALG MS COAST NR THE MS SOUND ISLANDS...INTO SE LA NR KMSY...STNRY. AN UPPER LVL LOW PRES SYS CONTS TO SPIN OVR THE LWR MS VALLEY AND WILL ONSET STG TO SVR TSTMS OVR LAND AREAS LT THIS MORN...MOVG INTO THE CSTL WATERS THIS EVE/OVRNGT. 1013MB HIGH CNTRD NR 28N/89.5W. 2MB PRES GRADIENT N GLFMEX...HIGH TO TROF. 4MB GRADIENT WRN GLFMEX...HIGH TO 1009MB TX CST. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION IS 1012MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...5% CHC SVR DURG AFTN HRS OVER LAND...5% CHC SVR OVR GLFMEX EVE/NIGHT. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF PORT FOURCHON... AT 823 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...15 NM SOUTH OF GRAND ISLE...MOVING NORTH AT 5 KNOTS. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR 7 NM SOUTH OF GRAND ISLE AT 1030 AM CDT...PORT FOURCHON AROUND 1045 AM CDT. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 13Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... S 8KT 250FT... S 9KT 500FT... S 9KT 1KFT... S 10KT 2KFT...SSW 10KT 3KFT... SW 8KT 4KFT... SW 6KT 5KFT... W 4KT MAX WIND...275/65KT 35.7KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 3300FT...ISOTHERMAL TO 5000FT. PSEUDO ABV 5000FT. INV-V TO 930MB...V-DRY TO 850MB...CONV CURVES TO 800MB...PARALLEL 4C CURVES ABV 800MB. LI -5. SBCAPE 1967 J/KG. P.W. 1.63 IN. 30R75 STM MOTION 267/8KT. 12Z KLIX SOUNDING SFC...050/03KT 1KFT...150/06KT 2KFT...205/07KT 3KFT...230/10KT 4KFT...230/14KT 6KFT...210/10KT MAX WIND...265/71KT 46KFT. SFC INVERSION TO 585FT...DRY LAPSE TO 3600FT...WARM LAPSE TO 4700FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV 4700FT. SATURATED TO 890MB/3600FT...DRY ABV 890MB...CONVG CURVES ABV 700MB...V-DRY ABV 570MB. LI -7. SBCAPE 2947 J/KG. P.W. 1.71 IN. 30R75 STM MOTION 272/7KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W SPECI KBVE 301402Z AUTO 27003KT 4SM -RA BR BKN024 24/22 A2989 RMK AO2 P0001 TSNO METAR KGAO 301403Z AUTO 21004KT CLR 30/23 A2987 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND SE PWINO METAR KHSA 301355Z 08003KT 7SM CLR 25/22 A2987 METAR KIPN 301355Z AUTO 21008KT 10SM SCT027 BKN032 BKN060 27/22 A2990 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 301355Z AUTO 20010KT 9SM FEW022 30/22 A2989 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 301355Z AUTO 21008KT 9SM 28/24 A2986 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 301355Z AUTO 23012KT 10SM FEW020 FEW055 29/23 A2989 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 301355Z AUTO VRB06KT 9SM FEW024 FEW030 SCT038 29/23 A2987 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT025 ISOLD SHRA TOPS 300. AFT 17Z VFR SCT-BKN035...SCT 2SM TSRA BKN025CB G40KT TOPS 450. AFT 01Z VFR FEW040 BKN100. AFT 04Z VFR CAVOK...LCL MVFR 4-6SM BR AFT 09Z. MARINE AREAS...BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...VFR SCT020...SCT MVFR 3SM SHRA BKN020CB G25KT TOPS 350. AFT 22Z...VFR SCT030 ISOLD MVFR 1SM TSRA BKN025CB G30KT TOPS 450. KHUM 301129Z 3012/3112 VRB03KT P6SM SKC FM301400 18004KT P6SM FEW030CB FM301700 19007KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB TEMPO 3019/3023 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN025CB FM302300 18004KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB FM310300 VRB03KT 6SM BR SKC KHSA 301129Z 3012/3112 VRB02KT P6SM SCT120 FM301600 17005KT P6SM FEW040CB FM301800 18006KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB TEMPO 3021/3101 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN025CB FM310100 15003KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB FM310400 VRB02KT P6SM BKN250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR SCT015...SCT TSRA. LGT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUE...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT S WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WED...VFR SCT030...SCT TSRA. LGT W WND. .RADAR...AT 0900 CDT...EARLIER BAND OF SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS HAS DISPERSED TO ISOLD-SCT SHWRS/FEW TSTMS...MOVG N 8-10KT. CLOSEST CELL 13NM S OF SPILL LOCATION HAD WEAKENED FM TSTM TO LGT SHWR...MOVG N 8KT. CLOSEST LGTNG 32NM E...MOST NMRS OVR AND NR SE LA CST FM POINT AU FER ISLAND TO MOUTH OF MS RVR...MOVG N 8KT. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.06 FT AT 0839 CDT RISING NEAR HIGH TIDE 2.05 FT AT 0954 CDT. WYCM6 1.85 FT AT 0839 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.46 FT AT 1255 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 82.4F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........51 51 51 51 55 55 55 55 55 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............81 82 83 83 84 84 84 84 83 RH..............75 72 70 69 68 68 67 68 69 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.12 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 TRANS SPD (M/S).5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 CEILINGS........S25.........B30.................... SEAS............1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........55 48 48 48 56 56 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 82 80 79 79 79 RH..............70 73 74 76 77 77 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 4 SE 2 SE 3 SE 5 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 2600 2400 2400 2400 2200 MIX HGT (M).....820 790 730 730 730 670 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 SW 6 S 3 S 3 SE 8 S 9 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 4 SW 3 S 1 S 1 SE 4 S 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............2 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC SM SM SM LC LC .MEMORIAL DAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........56 36 36 36 46 46 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 80 82 82 83 83 RH..............78 76 71 69 67 68 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2200 2400 2600 2600 2700 2700 MIX HGT (M).....670 730 790 790 820 820 TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 SE 7 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 4 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............1 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...JULIA RUTHFORD TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100530.DEEPW.05/LIX