FNAK79 PAFG 010019
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR GILLES CREEK...ORCA IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
419 PM AKDT MON MAY 31 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1531 AKDT ON MAY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
COVERS THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR FORT YUKON AND
NORTHWEST OF NORTHWAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR ARE INDICATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA AND THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING.
THE AREA OF THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
CENTER JUST SOUTH OF FORT YUKON. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY.
THE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE FIRE AREA.

THE GENERAL WIND FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
IS VERY WEAK AND WIND DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE
AND INFLUENCED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE THERMAL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
YUKON VALLEY TUESDAY...THE GENERAL WIND FLOW IN THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WINDS BLOW TOWARDS THE LOW CENTER.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60
                    PERCENT TOWARDS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND WET THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE MAINLY NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
                    EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 0-4 MPH AFTER
                    2300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL DECREASING TO AROUND 1000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH BECOMING VARIABLE 0-5
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 0-4 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5-8 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE. LOWS NEAR 50. HIGHS NEAR 70. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS NEAR 70. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. VARIABLE MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FISCHER
REQUESTED BY...FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100531.GILLE.01/AFG