FNUS74 KLIX 011811 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 111 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AT 1300 CDT...1018MB HIGH CNTRD NR 27N/90W...XTNSN OF LARGER HIGH PRES RDG OVR NRN-ERN GLFMEX. 1012MB LOW PRES SYS NR 25N/95W WITH RAPID DEVLPMT AND EXPANSION OF TSTMS IN W-CNTRL GLFMEX...GENLY W OF 93W. 5MB GRADIENT HIGH TO LOW. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION IS 1016MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 16Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... NW 3KT 250FT... NW 3KT 500FT... N 4KT 1KFT... N 6KT 2KFT... N 5KT 3KFT...SE 5KT 4KFT...SE 12KT 5KFT...SE 12KT MAX WIND...245/46KT 40.7KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 4300FT...WARM LAPSE TO 5900FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV 5900FT. 7C SPRD TO 900MB/3500FT...V-DRY TO 800MB...MOIST LAYER 750-650MB...DRY V ABV. LI -6...SBCAPE 1962 J/KG...30R75 STM MOTION 305/02KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 011751Z AUTO 18005KT 10SM CLR 31/22 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP155 60000 T03060217 10311 20250 58014 TSNO METAR KGAO 011803Z AUTO 13005KT SCT029 SCT039 31/22 A2998 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE PWINO METAR KHSA 011751Z 21007KT 10SM SCT030 SCT070 BKN120 31/22 A2996 METAR KIPN 011800Z AUTO 15007KT 10SM CLR 27/23 A3001 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 011755Z AUTO 18008KT 10SM BKN023 32/23 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 011755Z AUTO 14006KT 10SM 30/24 A2998 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 011755Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 30/23 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 011755Z AUTO 19004KT 10SM CLR 31/22 A2998 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT040...SCT 1SM +TSRA BKN025CB G25KT TOPS 500 ...BECMG ISOLD TSRA AFT 22Z. AFT 01Z...VFR CAVU...LCL MVFR 4SM BR BTWN 09Z-14Z. MARINE AREAS...BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...VFR SCT020...ISOLD 4SM SHRA BKN025CB TOPS 350...LCL 2SM +TSRA OVC015CB TOPS 400 G25KT. KHUM 011720Z 0118/0218 20007KT P6SM SCT040CB FM012000 18007KT P6SM VCTS SCT035CB BKN250 TEMPO 0120/0123 VRB10G20KT 3SM TSRA BKN035CB FM020100 VRB03KT P6SM FEW025 SCT250 TEMPO 0208/0212 3SM BR FM021400 17006KT P6SM SCT030 BKN250 KHSA 011720Z 0118/0218 24005KT P6SM SCT030CB SCT250 FM012100 21005KT P6SM SCT040CB BKN250 TEMPO 0121/0201 VRB07G15KT 3SM TSRA BKN035CB FM020100 00000KT P6SM SCT250 FM021400 20005KT P6SM SCT050 BKN250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WED...VFR SCT030...SCT TSRA. LGT S WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THU...VFR SCT-BKN035...SCT TSRA. LGT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI...VFR BKN030...ISOLD TSRA. LGT SW WND. .RADAR...AT 1300 CDT...A BKN LN OF SHWRS XTNDD FM 79NM W TO 56NM NE OF SPILL LOCATION...MOVG E 5KT. NO LGTNG THESE CELLS. NO LGTNG WITHIN 100NM OF SPILL LOCATION. A LARGE AND EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STG TSTMS WAS INDICATED IN THE W-CNTRL GLFMEX IN ASSOC WITH 1012MB LOW PRES CIRC. CENTROID OF THIS FEATURE 395NM WSW OF SPILL LOCATION...MOVMT NE 8KT. STORMS XPNDG EWD TO NR 93W AND NWD TO 28N. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED AND DIRECTION...ETA AT SPILL LOCATION...85 HOURS...0200 CDT SAT. MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TO ACCELERATE AND MOVE IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LVL FLOW PATTERN. MODEL ETA AT SPILL LOCATION...42 HOURS...0700 CDT THU. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.70 FT AT 1254 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 0.44 FT AT 2312 CDT. WYCM6 2.00 FT AT 1254 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.37 FT AT 1455 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 87.1F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........10 11 14 15 18 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............84 84 84 84 84 RH..............68 70 72 74 74 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 3 7 7 TRANS SPD (M/S).1 1 1 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 CEILINGS........S25............... SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......SM SM SM LC LC .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........25 29 27 45 50 50 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 82 80 80 80 80 RH..............77 77 79 77 78 75 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 S 5 SE 5 SE 6 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2300 2500 2300 2300 2100 1900 MIX HGT (M).....700 760 700 700 640 580 TRANSPORT WIND..S 7 W 8 SW 6 SW 6 S 5 S 8 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 3 W 4 SW 3 SW 3 S 2 S 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 40 40 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC .WEDNESDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........50 55 55 55 42 42 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............80 82 83 84 85 85 RH..............75 70 65 63 61 63 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 S 6 S 6 S 7 SE 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 2400 3000 3000 3600 3600 MIX HGT (M).....580 730 910 910 1100 1100 TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 S 13 S 14 S 14 S 14 S 15 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 4 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 40 20 20 SEAS............2 2 2 2 3 3 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .FRIDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100601.DEEPW.08/LIX