FNUS74 KLIX 021405 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 905 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AT 0900 CDT...WK 1013MB TROF ALG N GLFMEX CST...FM SE LA TO S OF MOBILE BAY. WK 1015MB HIGH CNTRD NR 28N/89.5W. SFC PRES AT SPOT LOCATION IS 1014MB. 1009MB IN W-CNTRL GLFMEX IN SFC TROF IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG UPR LVL DISTRBNC. UPR LVL DISTRBNC MOVG OUT OF MEXICO AND LWR TX TO ENTER THE W GLFMEX TODAY...PROGRESSING ENE. SHWRS/TSTMS INCRSG OVR N GLFMEX ATTM...XPTD TO INCR IN CLUSTERS AND SQUALLS DURG THE DAY OVR MID-GLFMEX...SPRDG NE INTO OPS AREA. Q35-50KT PSBL THIS EVE THRU THU AM. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL. ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MS CANYON... AT 815 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO 33 KNOTS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ABOUT 64 NM SOUTHEAST OF PILOTTOWN...OR 16NM EAST OF MS CANYON 252...MOVING EAST AT 5 KNOTS. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 12Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... SW 8KT 250FT... SW 9KT 500FT...SSW 9KT 1KFT...SSW 10KT 2KFT... S 12KT 3KFT... SE 9KT 4KFT... S 6KT 5KFT... SW 10KT MAX WIND...243/43KT 40.6KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 3400FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV 3400FT. INV-V 3C DEP TO 980MB/900FT...V-DRY ABV. SHALLOW MOIST LYR 6C DEP AT 650MB/12.0KFT. P.W. 1.39 IN. LI -6...SBCAPE 2762 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 243/05KT. 12Z KLIX SOUNDING SFC...000/00KT 1KFT...255/04KT 2KFT...250/08KT 3KFT...255/06KT 4KFT...245/10KT 6KFT...225/14KT MAX WIND...255/41KT 46.0KFT. SFC INVERSION TO 400FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV 400FT. SATURATED TO 1000MB/400FT...MOIST TO 950MB/1800FT...V-DRY TO 750MB...MOIST LYR BTWN 700-650MB...V-DRY 3C OR GRTR ABV. P.W. 1.86 IN. LI -9...SBCAPE 4279 J/KG...30R75 STM MOTION 272/05KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 021350Z AUTO 19009KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR FEW007 SCT022 BKN034 25/23 A2993 RMK AO2 VIS 1 1/2V5 RAB00 SLP133 P0012 T02500228 TSNO METAR KGAO 021343Z AUTO 10009KT TS 25/23 A2992 RMK AO2 P0010 LTG DSNT ALQS METAR KHSA 021355Z 00000KT 10SM SCT010 BKN020 27/24 A2992 METAR KIPN 021400Z AUTO 14006KT 10SM SCT110 29/23 A2994 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 021355Z AUTO 20012KT 8SM FEW021 FEW034 SCT110 30/24 A2993 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 021355Z AUTO 16013KT 8SM 26/22 A2989 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 021355Z AUTO 20011KT 10SM FEW100 29/23 A2993 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 021355Z AUTO 05004KT 8SM FEW003 SCT048 BKN055 25/22 A2991 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...LA CST...MVFR BKN025...SCT 2SM TSRA BKN022CB G25KT TOPS 450. MS CST...VFR CAVOK. AFT 17Z...MVFR BKN-OVC025 ...SCT 1-2SM TSRA BKN018CB TOPS 450...BECMG AFT 09Z NMRS... PSBL Q35-50KT. MARINE AREAS...BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...SCT025...AREAS MVFR BKN025... SCT TSRA G30KT TOPS 500...BECMG NMRS AFT 16Z. AFT 00Z SCT-NMRS 1SM +TSRA BKN018CB Q40KT TOPS 450. KHUM 021128Z 0212/0312 VRB03KT P6SM VCTS SCT020CB SCT250 TEMPO 0213/0215 5SM SHRA BKN025CB OVC200 FM021500 17006KT P6SM VCTS SCT027CB SCT250 TEMPO 0215/0218 VRB05G15KT 4SM SHRA BKN025CB OVC250 FM021800 16010KT P6SM VCSH SCT035CB SCT250 TEMPO 0220/0223 TSRA BKN040CB FM030200 13007KT P6SM VCSH BKN025CB TEMPO 0307/0311 3SM SHRA OVC020CB KHSA 021128Z 0212/0312 00000KT P6SM FEW025 BKN250 FM021400 20005KT P6SM SCT025 SCT250 FM021700 18008KT P6SM VCSH SCT030CB BKN250 TEMPO 0219/0223 TSRA BKN040CB FM022300 16010KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB OVC250 TEMPO 0223/0302 TSRA BKN030CB OVC060 FM030200 15009KT P6SM VCSH BKN025CB OVC100 PROB30 0305/0310 SHRA FM031000 09010KT P6SM VCTS BKN020CB OVC090= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THU...VFR SCT015 BKN035...SCT-NMRS TSRA. LGT SW WND...XCP G30KT IN TSRA. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI...VFR SCT035...SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT MDT NW WND BECMG MDT SW. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT-MDT SW WND. .RADAR...AT 0900 CDT...A STG TSTM WAS 11NM E OF SPILL LOCATION...MOVG ENE 8KT. INTENSE LGTNG AND PSBL WATERSPOUT THIS CELL. SCT LGT SHWRS BTWN 17-50NM SW-NW OF SPILL LOCATION...MOVG ENE 8KT. FEW LGTNG STRIKES THESE CELLS. CLOSEST LGTNG...11NM ESE. OVERALL COVERG AND INTNSTY XPCTD TO INCR FM THE WEST TODAY. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.51 FT AT 0838 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.64 FT AT 1109 CDT. WYCM6 1.29 FT AT 0855 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.15 FT AT 1455 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 84.0F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........65 67 67 67 65 65 65 64 64 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............83 84 84 85 85 85 85 84 84 RH..............73 69 69 67 67 67 68 70 70 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.1 MIX HGT (KM)....0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE SE SE S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.3 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 TRANS SPD (M/S).1 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 40 50 50 50 50 50 CEILINGS........B20................................ SEAS............2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......SM LC LC LC CH CH CH CH CH .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........64 70 85 85 64 60 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............84 82 81 80 79 78 RH..............70 74 77 82 85 87 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 10 SE 11 SE 12 SE 13 SE 14 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....3100 2300 2000 2000 2100 2300 MIX HGT (M).....940 700 610 610 640 700 TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SE 16 SE 20 SE 20 SE 22 SE 23 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 5 SE 7 SE 9 SE 9 SE 10 SE 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............3 5 5 5 5 5 SEA STATE.......CH CH RO RO RO RO .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........60 64 70 70 48 61 WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............78 80 82 83 83 82 RH..............87 82 77 74 74 76 20 FT WIND......SE 13 E 12 E 11 SE 10 SE 8 E 6 20 FT WIND GUST.30 25 25 25 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2300 2200 2400 2400 2400 2700 MIX HGT (M).....700 670 730 730 730 820 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 23 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 10 SE 6 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 10 SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 SE 4 SE 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............5 5 5 5 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO RO CH CH CH LC .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100602.DEEPW.05/LIX