FNUS74 KLIX 041104 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 604 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...AT 0500 CDT...1004MB LOW PRES SYS IS JUST WEST OF THE SABINE RIVER WHILE A TROUGH IS DUE EAST ACROSS SRN LA AND INTO THE GLFMEX JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC IS LEADING TO MODERATE S-SWRLY FLOW. SFC PRESSURE AT SPILL SITE WAS 1010MB. SQUALL LINE NEAR LAFAYETTE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 20 KTS. LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OVER WEST/CENTRAL GULF IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 KTS. THESE TSTMS SHOULD REACH THE SPILL SITE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS.WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE AND WATERSPOUTS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 10Z RUC40 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... S 11KT 250FT... S 12KT 500FT... S 12KT 1KFT... SE 13KT 2KFT...SSE 13KT 3KFT... S 12KT 4KFT... SW 15KT 5KFT... SW 20KT MAX WIND...227/73KT 38.8KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 1700FT...INVERSION 1700FT TO 3300FT. PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. P.W. 1.26 IN. LI -7.5. SBCAPE 2978 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 263/13KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 041051Z AUTO 17009KT 10SM CLR 26/23 A2983 METAR KGAO 041044Z AUTO 13006KT 25/23 A2980 RMK AO2 SKY OBSCURED METAR KHSA 040055Z 00000KT 10SM SCT016 BKN028 25/24 A2976 METAR KIPN 041100Z AUTO 19013KT 10SM CLR 27/23 A2986 METAR KMYT 041055Z AUTO 18012KT 7SM FEW014 27/24 A2984 METAR KSPR 041055Z AUTO 17021KT 10SM FEW014 SCT085 27/24 A2978 METAR KMDJ 041055Z AUTO 17017KT 9SM SCT016 SCT043 28/25 A2983 METAR KDLP 041055Z AUTO 18014KT 10SM CLR 27/24 A2981 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR BKN080...ISOLD SHRA. AFT 16Z...VFR BKN 040...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN025CB G25KT. AFT 01Z...VFR CAVOK...LCL MVFR 4-5SM BR TIL 14Z. MARINE AREAS...BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...SCT025 BKN080. AFT 16Z MVFR BKN025 BKN080...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G35KT. AFT 03Z VFR SCT025...SCT 2SM SHRA/TSRA BKN018CB G25KT. KHUM 041100Z 0411/0506 15006KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN045 FM041300 18013KT P6SM VCTS BKN028CB BKN250 TEMPO 0413/0415 -TSRA FM041500 18013G19KT P6SM -SHRA BKN030 BKN100 OVC250 TEMPO 0415/0418 VRB10G30KT 2SM +TSRA BKN025CB OVC050 FM041800 19013KT P6SM -SHRA BKN035CB OVC250 FM042100 20012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN250 FM050300 19006KT P6SM SCT250 KHSA 041100Z 0411/0506 17005KT P6SM SCT025 BKN150 FM041500 18009KT P6SM FEW025 SCT035CB TEMPO 0415/0418 TSRA BKN035CB FM041800 18009KT P6SM TSRA BKN025CB AMD NOT SKED TIL 041200= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR/MVFR SCT/BKN025...SCT/NUM TSRA. MDT S/SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR BKN035...SCT TSRA. LGT-MDT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT SW WND. .RADAR...AT 0600 CDT...ALL REMAINS QUIET NEAR THE SPILL SITE BUT LOOK FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING. LARGE AREA OF TSTMS MOVING NE TOWARD SPILL SITE AT ABOUT 35 TO 40 KTS. ON CURRENT TRACK AND SPEED...SHOULD ARRIVE AT SPILL SITE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.29 FT AT 0555 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.51 FT AT 0859 CDT. WYCM6 1.30 FT AT 0556 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.94 FT AT 1557 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 86.0F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........75 75 75 75 69 69 69 69 69 73 73 73 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............82 83 83 83 83 84 84 84 83 83 82 83 RH..............88 85 82 82 82 82 77 80 81 84 84 84 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 25 30 35 35 35 35 30 30 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.24 24 24 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 22 22 TRANS SPD (M/S).11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 SEAS............5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO VRO VRO VRO VRO RO RO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........73 68 65 65 69 58 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 83 83 83 83 83 RH..............82 82 82 82 82 82 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 10 S 10 S 12 S 14 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 25 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2700 2600 2600 2600 2400 MIX HGT (M).....850 820 790 790 790 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 22 S 20 S 15 S 15 S 23 S 23 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 9 S 7 S 7 S 10 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............5 5 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH RO RO .SATURDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 72 71 71 71 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 84 85 85 85 84 RH..............82 80 77 77 77 80 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2300 2200 2200 2400 2400 MIX HGT (M).....730 700 670 670 730 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 22 S 20 S 20 S 21 SW 18 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100604.DEEPW.02/LIX