FNUS74 KLIX 041203 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 703 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...AT 0500 CDT...1004MB LOW PRES SYS IS JUST WEST OF THE SABINE RIVER WHILE A TROUGH IS DUE EAST ACROSS SRN LA AND INTO THE GLFMEX JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC IS LEADING TO MODERATE S-SWRLY FLOW. SFC PRESSURE AT SPILL SITE WAS 1010MB. SQUALL LINE JUST WEST OF ATCHAFALAYA BASIN IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 20 KTS WITH ISOLD CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OVER WEST/CENTRAL GULF IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 KTS. THESE TSTMS SHOULD REACH THE SPILL SITE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS.WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE AND WATERSPOUTS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 12Z RUC40 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... S 10KT 250FT... S 12KT 500FT... S 11KT 1KFT...SSE 13KT 2KFT...SSE 14KT 3KFT... S 12KT 4KFT... SW 12KT 5KFT... SW 15KT MAX WIND...228/80KT 38.5KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 1900FT...INVERSION 1900FT TO 3300FT. PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE...P.W. 1.42 IN. LI -8.6. SBCAPE 3361 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 259/12KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 041151Z AUTO 15006KT 10SM CLR 26/23 A2985 METAR KGAO 041144Z AUTO 13005KT 26/24 A2982 METAR KHSA 041151Z 00000KT 7SM SCT030 21/21 A2983 METAR KIPN 041200Z AUTO 18009KT 10SM CLR 27/23 A2988 METAR KMYT 041155Z AUTO 19016KT 6SM HZ FEW014 27/24 A2985 METAR KSPR 041155Z AUTO 17023KT 10SM BKN038 28/24 A2980 METAR KMDJ 041155Z AUTO 18017KT 10SM SCT015 SCT021 28/25 A2985 METAR KDLP 041155Z AUTO 17012KT 10SM BKN016 28/24 A2983 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR BKN080...ISOLD SHRA. AFT 16Z...VFR BKN 040...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN025CB G25KT. AFT 01Z...VFR CAVOK...LCL MVFR 4-5SM BR TIL 14Z. MARINE AREAS...BTWN 27-30N/87-90W...SCT025 BKN080. AFT 16Z MVFR BKN025 BKN080...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G35KT. AFT 03Z VFR SCT025...SCT 2SM SHRA/TSRA BKN018CB G25KT. KHUM 041141Z 0412/0512 14004KT P6SM VCSH FEW040 SCT060 SCT250 FM041300 18013KT P6SM VCTS BKN028CB BKN250 TEMPO 0413/0415 -TSRA FM041500 18011G17KT P6SM -SHRA BKN030 BKN100 OVC250 TEMPO 0415/0418 VRB10G30KT 2SM +TSRA BKN025CB OVC050 FM041800 19013KT P6SM -SHRA BKN035CB OVC250 FM042100 20012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN250 FM050300 19006KT P6SM SCT250 FM051000 18009KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 KHSA 041141Z 0412/0512 VRB03KT P6SM BKN021 BKN040 OVC200 FM041400 20013KT P6SM VCSH SCT040CB OVC250 TEMPO 0416/0419 -TSRA BKN035CB OVC060 FM041900 17013KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB OVC090 TEMPO 0419/0422 TSRA FM042300 19007KT P6SM SCT035 SCT050 BKN250 FM051000 18004KT P6SM BKN250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR/MVFR SCT/BKN025...SCT/NUM TSRA. MDT S/SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR BKN035...SCT TSRA. LGT-MDT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT SW WND. .RADAR...AT 0700 CDT...ALL REMAINS QUIET NEAR THE SPILL SITE BUT LOOK FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING. LARGE AREA OF TSTMS MOVING NE TOWARD SPILL SITE AT ABOUT 35 TO 40 KTS. ON CURRENT TRACK AND SPEED...SHOULD ARRIVE AT SPILL SITE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.29 FT AT 0555 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.51 FT AT 0859 CDT. WYCM6 1.30 FT AT 0556 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.94 FT AT 1557 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 86.0F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........75 75 75 69 69 69 69 69 73 73 73 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............83 83 83 83 84 84 84 83 83 82 83 RH..............85 82 82 82 82 77 80 81 84 84 84 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 25 30 35 35 35 35 30 30 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.24 24 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 22 22 TRANS SPD (M/S).11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 SEAS............5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO VRO VRO VRO VRO RO RO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........73 68 65 65 69 58 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 83 83 83 83 83 RH..............82 82 82 82 82 82 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 10 S 10 S 12 S 14 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 25 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2700 2600 2600 2600 2400 MIX HGT (M).....850 820 790 790 790 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 22 S 20 S 15 S 15 S 23 S 23 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 9 S 7 S 7 S 10 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............5 5 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH RO RO .SATURDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 72 71 71 71 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 84 85 85 85 84 RH..............82 80 77 77 77 80 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2300 2200 2200 2400 2400 MIX HGT (M).....730 700 670 670 730 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 22 S 20 S 20 S 21 SW 18 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100604.DEEPW.03/LIX